Before I basically copy and paste the intro from previous blogs (I do this every year, folks), a quick note to shout out Tom W Clarke's excellent book Shoulda Been Higher, which celebrates 30 years of triple j's Hottest 100.
Yes, he uses the term "folk" when he means "roots" or "singer-songwriter" or even "acoustic pop", but I can absolutely overlook this for his stellar research, insightful analysis, and the bit where he calls Jet the Avatar of rock music (immensely popular but no cultural influence whatsoever).
He also highlights some of the great songs that surprisingly missed the countdown over the years, much like this massive undertaking where myself, Tyler Jenke and Patrick Avenell compiled the definitive list of the Hottest 100 omissions.
The book reminded me I'm not the only nerd who loves the absolute shit out of triple j's Hottest 100. Much like Christmas, it's an occasion that brings people together to argue and drink too much, but with the greatest gift of all - quantifiable statistics about music.
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #11
Yes, he uses the term "folk" when he means "roots" or "singer-songwriter" or even "acoustic pop", but I can absolutely overlook this for his stellar research, insightful analysis, and the bit where he calls Jet the Avatar of rock music (immensely popular but no cultural influence whatsoever).
He also highlights some of the great songs that surprisingly missed the countdown over the years, much like this massive undertaking where myself, Tyler Jenke and Patrick Avenell compiled the definitive list of the Hottest 100 omissions.
The book reminded me I'm not the only nerd who loves the absolute shit out of triple j's Hottest 100. Much like Christmas, it's an occasion that brings people together to argue and drink too much, but with the greatest gift of all - quantifiable statistics about music.
The 2023 countdown is on January 27, and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.
Can we predict the winner? Well, 100 Warm Tunas can - it's been right five out of seven times since Nick Whyte set up his social media-scraping countdown predicter, including the last three Hottest 100s.
Every year I write this blog, calculating the likelihood and unlikelihood of the some of the hot favourites winning the poll by taking into account Warm Tunas and other factors - the bookies, the ARIA charts, and Spotify and YouTube plays. What's interesting is that the ARIA charts are becoming increasingly unimportant, while TikTok has become increasingly important, though it's hard to find figures to fully quantify how far a song has truly spread across TikTok, so for now it's a missing stat.
Meanwhile, 100 Warms Tunas' increasing accuracy - Whyte has been using machine learning (ML) to improve his algorhythm - means this blog is increasingly redundant. But who knows? Maybe some people really do read this in order to sound like they know what they're talking about at a Hottest 100 party.
So let's do it, shall we?
All stats/odds correct at the time of publishing.
And remember - gamble responsibly.
Rush - Troye Sivan
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #1
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #1
Sportsbet: $5 (third favourite)
TAB: $4 (third favourite)
ARIA: #12
Spotify streams: 208m
YouTube plays: 26m
Why it will win: According to this data crunch, Rush was one of the most popular and most played songs on triple j last year. It's also the most streamed Aussie contender, and Aussies have won seven of the last 10 annual Hottest 100. Rush has also been massive on TikTok, and cracked the ARIA top 20, so it has that all important mainstream crossover. triple j has finally caught on to Sivan, having left him off their playlists for the past decade, but now he fits exactly into the youth station's increasingly inclusive and pop-friendly remit. And with triple j being poppier than ever, this is arguably the perfect pop song of 2023.
Why it won't win: The punters aren't convinced - both Sportsbet and TAB have two songs at shorter odds. You could also make a case that this is too poppy to win (Flume's winners had a harder electro edge to them) and that Sivan is too popular. And if mainstream pop is gonna take out top spot, can he really compete with the likes of Doja Cat and Olivia Rodrigo? Factor in that Troye Sivan isn't even in the top 50 most played artists on triple j this year, and maybe the buzz around Rush isn't all that.
Not Strong Enough - boygenius
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #2
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #2
Sportsbet: $23 (ninth favourite)
TAB: $8 (fourth favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 76m
YouTube plays: 3.8m
Why it will win: An amazing song off a truly great album. Sadly, triple j didn't do an album of the year poll for 2023, though this unofficial one puts boygenius' the record at #3 (and Double J's team put it at #7 for what it's worth). A legit poll might've even had it higher. Warm Tunas really likes this, even accounting for its Machine Learning, which typically downgrades rock/guitar tracks. Even the bookies don't mind it (especially TAB), though its odds on Sportsbet have been lengthening over the past week. Could this be the first all-female band to win the Hottest 100? It certainly deserves to be.
Why it won't win: This would be the rockiest track since Kings Of Leon's Sex On Fire took out the poll in 2008. Yes, Ocean Alley and The Rubens have one since them, but this feels closer to rock and/or roll - something that doesn't win Hottest 100s these days. And boygenius, for all their love and hype, haven't got the same mainstream/TikTok/chart appeal as a lot of other stuff on this list. It's also worth noting that early calculations by Warm Tunas had this song winning, but it has faded slightly.
What Was I Made For? - Billie Eilish
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #8
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #4
Sportsbet: $21 (equal seventh favourite)
TAB: $21 (equal 14th favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 580m
YouTube plays: 97m
Why it will win: Nothing conquered 2023 quite like Barbie, and Billie Eilish was along for the ride with this existential (and surprisingly complex) piano ballad. It spent three weeks at the top of the ARIA charts, cracked half a billion Spotify streams, and struck a chord with millions. Warm Tunas' machine learning boosts it significantly, Sportsbet punters rate it highly, but more importantly, Eilish has great Hottest 100 form. She's the only solo female artist to win the countdown, and she's the only artist to make the top 10 four years running (2018-2021), and she's appeared in the last six Hottest 100s. Could Eilish join Flume and Powderfinger in the Two-Time Winners Club?
Why it won't win: There's never been a winner that sounds even remotely like What Was I Made For?. And while there's a first time for everything, it's hard to picture a Hottest 100 concluding on such a downer.
Rumble - Skrillex, Fred Again... & Flowdan
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #3
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #3
Sportsbet: $26 (equal 10th favourite)
TAB: $15 (eighth favourite)
ARIA: #32
Spotify streams: 111m
YouTube plays: 1.9m
Why it will win: One of three electronic tracks that peaked on the ARIA charts at #32 that are expected to do well - spooky. Rumble's got big Spotify numbers, bigger than Kylie even, and Fred Again... was the most played artist on triple j this year. Oh, and Skrillex was the third most played. Warm Tunas like this and has three Fred Again... songs in the top 30, after he posted four in last year's countdown. He's on a roll.
Why it won't win: The punters don't seem to like it, and it doesn't seem to have crossed into the mainstream like some of the other likely ones. Fred Again... and Skrillex are also in danger of splitting their vote - between them they have nine songs in the voting guide, partly due to Skrillex releasing two albums in two days in February last year.
Rhyme Dust - MK & Dom Dolla
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #4
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #5
Sportsbet: $2.50 (second favourite)
TAB: $3.50 (second favourite)
ARIA: #32
Spotify streams: 85m
YouTube plays: 1m
Why it will win: Lots of money being put on this one, and a lot of hype around Dom Dolla, the Aussie DJ making headway in the US. He was in the top 25 most played artists on triple j this year, and this has the same kinda vibes as Eliza Rose & Interplanetary Criminal's Baddest of Them All and Fisher's Losing It, both of which came in at #2 in 2022 and 2018 respectively. Maybe it's time for house music to take the top prize.
Why it won't win: This kind of club banger has never won - the best they usually do is place second (see above). And that's what the bookies seem to think will happen. Warm Tunas doesn't even think it will get that high. And am I the only one who thinks this song is very meh?
Padam Padam - Kylie Minogue
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #13
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #9
Sportsbet: $91 (equal 22nd favourite)
TAB: $21 (14th favourite)
ARIA: #19
Spotify streams: 106m
YouTube plays: 23m
Why it will win: How great would it be if Kylie won? She last appeared in the countdown in 1997 with Did It Again, which was her third Hottest 100 appearance. If she evens make it into the countdown, it will be the longest gap between appearances (beating Slipknot's 19-year absence). And while it seems unlikely on the face of the data - bookies have her top 20, Warm Tunas top 10 - there's hopefully an undercurrent of wishful thinking that will get Kylie across the line. Now that triple j is so pop-oriented, who better to win the Hottest 100 than Australia's Queen of Pop?
Why it won't win: Wikipedia called Padam Padam "a social media viral phenomenon" and noted it "received critical acclaim from music critics" but neither thing is enough to get Kylie across the line. Of the sub-three-minute pop songs here, which is going to be a bigger hit with the kids - Rush or Padam Padam?
Paint The Town Red - Doja Cat
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #15
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #10
Sportsbet: $1.83 (favourite)
TAB: $1.65 (favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 778m
YouTube plays: 173m
Why it will win: This could be the pop-rap song that eats them all. It spent 10 weeks at #1 on the ARIA charts, and 20 weeks in the top 10. It has more Spotify streams and YouTube plays than anything else here, and the bookies love it. Doja Cat was the 21st most played artist on triple j this year and this Walk On By-sampling track was the 12th most played/most popular song on the youth network (according to this metric) in 2023. She also had five tracks in the 2021 countdown, so she's got form.
Why it won't win: On paper, everything looks set for a win for Paint The Town Red, except that its Warm Tunas rating is so low. Even with machine learning, it only bumps to 10th. This could be the key factor that sinks this otherwise unbackable favourite.
The Worst Person Alive - G Flip
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #11
Sportsbet: $13 (fourth favourite)
TAB: $12 (fifth favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 6m
YouTube plays: 475,000
Why it will win: As mentioned previously, there was no album of the year poll at triple j this year (probably because of Richard Kingsmill's sudden exit) but G Flip's Drummer would've been a contender for #1. They've had 12 songs in the countdown over the past five years, including two top 10 finishes (and a #11 last year). There is a lot of goodwill out there for G Flip, despite Drummer being under-appreciated at the ARIA awards. And with seven songs in the voting guide, maybe this is the one to get G Flip a much deserved #1.
Why it won't win: While the odds are surprisingly short, it would be a massive upset if The Worst Person Alive won. As popular as G Flip is in the triple j sphere (13th most played artist on the station, and discovered via Unearthed), they've not fully crossed into the mainstream, despite a #1 ARIA album and appearance at the AFL Grand Final. Compare G Flip to Troye Sivan and Doja Cat, and it doesn't look like The Worst Person Alive can get across the line. Which is sad.
And here are some other songs destined to do well:
Green Honda - BENEE
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #12
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #6
Sportsbet: $67 (equal 17th favourite)
TAB: $19 (11th favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 8m
YouTube plays: 816,000
Therapy - Budjerah
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #9
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #7
Sportsbet: $51 (15th favourite)
TAB: $41 (21st favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 12m
YouTube plays: 452,000
adore u - Fred Again... & Obongjayar
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #14
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #8
Sportsbet: $15 (fifth favourite)
TAB: $13 (sixth favourite)
ARIA: #41
Spotify streams: 79m
YouTube plays: 221,000
(It Goes Like) Nanana - Peggy Gou
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #17
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #17
Sportsbet: $26 (equal 10th favourite)
TAB: $19 (11th favourite)
ARIA: #32
Spotify streams: 339m
YouTube plays: 17m
vampire - Olivia Rodrigo
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #18
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #16
Sportsbet: $21 (equal seventh favourite)
TAB: $14 (seventh favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 698m
YouTube plays: 85m
Letting Go - Angie McMahon
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #7
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #12
Sportsbet: $151
TAB: $101
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 3.6m
YouTube plays: 259,000
Back On 74 - Jungle
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #6
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #13
Sportsbet: $101
TAB: N/A
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 82m
YouTube plays: 18m
Leaving The Light - Genesis Owusu
100 Warm Tunas (without ML): #5
100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #14
Sportsbet: $51 (equal 15th favourite)
TAB: $17 (ninth favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 2.1m
YouTube plays: 620,000
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