Who will win triple j's Hottest 100 of 2022?

It's Hottest 100 time again. The 2022 countdown is on January 28, and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.

It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s or the '00s when they played more Red Hot Chili Peppers or whatever, and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Get over yourselves, haters. (Oh, and listen to Double J on Sunday, January 29 when they replay the Hottest 100 of 2002 in full.)

When it comes to picking a winner, there are three key indicators - the various bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance. The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas was wrong in 2019 and 2016, and the bookies didn't see The Wiggles coming last year). ARIA chart performance is the icing on the cake - only six times out of 29 has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in the ARIA top 50 prior to winning. 

An interesting thing to note this year is that 100 Warm Tunas has introduced an "experimental" machine learning (ML) process into its algorithm to help offset its past errors. Its a good way to counter discrepancies in the results, including the fact that metal and rock songs often rate higher in the Warm Tunas than they actually finish. I've added both Warm Tunas predictions - with ML and without ML - for completeness, although at the time of writing ML hadn't been applied to some songs.

I've also added in the thoughts of Patrick Avenell, who is an aficionado and unofficial historian of the countdown with some serious form in predicting the Hottest 100. He's the guy triple j goes to for expert opinions on the Hottest 100 (and I do too, as you can read here). 

And just for shits and gigs, I've added in Spotify streams and YouTube plays (which is a rough sum of film clips and lyric vids), because the more stats the merrier.

All stats/odds correct at time of publication.

And remember - gamble responsibly.

In The Wake Of Your Leave - Gang Of Youths

100 Warm Tunas (without ML) : #1

100 Warm Tunas (with ML): #2
Sportsbet: $6 (third favourite)
TAB: $4 (equal second favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: #1

Spotify streams: 5.66m

YouTube plays: 1.13m

Why it will win: Gang Of Youths have four top 10 finishes under their belt, including a #6 last year, so voters obviously have a soft spot for them. With seven songs in the voting guide this year, including their beautiful Like A Version (LAV) of Travis' Why Does It Always Rain On Me?, Gang Of Youths are likely to have at least three or four songs in the 2022 countdown. Warm Tunas predicts three, with the other two way back in the count, opening up the field for In The Wake Of Your Leave. This potentially means less of a split vote, which may have undone them in 2017 when they had three songs in the top 10. Patrick Avenell has also given In The Wake Of Your Leave his blessing. Could this finally be Gang Of Youths' year?

Why it won't win: The bookies are slightly less certain about this song than Warm Tunas and Patrick  are, and when you add in the Machine Learning (ML), even Warm Tunas has some doubts. And while its Spotify and YouTube numbers are strong compared to the other Aussie songs here, In The Wake Of Your Leave lacks that all important crossover factor of an ARIA chart placing. Some argue that's becoming less integral for a Hottest 100 win (last year's Wiggles' win was a good example), but history still says you need to have snuck into the ARIA top 50 to get a #1 here.

 

Stars In My Eyes - Ball Park Music

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #2

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #3
Sportsbet: $19 (sixth favourite)
TAB: $13 (fifth favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: #6

Spotify streams: 1.46m

YouTube plays: 67k

Why it will win: Again, Warm Tunas likes this better than the bookies. In fact, the vote aggregator liked it so much early on that it had this as the only song likely to give Gang Of Youths a run for their money (it's softened on this prediction somewhat, especially since the introduction of ML). BPM have had 12 songs in the countdown over the years, and got as close as #4 in 2020 with Cherub, which was a beautiful but very unlikely-seeming top five entry. Compared to Cherub, Stars In My Eyes sounds more like a #1. The love for them on triple j is huge - fans voted their 2022 album Weirder & Weirder the #2 album of the year, just ahead of Gang Of Youths' Angel In Realtime. This is BPM's best chance yet to win.

Why it won't win: BPM got to #21 last year with Sunscreen, a song that's had almost twice as many Spotify listens as Stars In My Eyes despite being released only four months earlier. They've also never had a charting single (Gang Of Youths have had two scrape into the top 50), and the bookies don't even see this going as high as Cherub did. And of the songs listed here, it's comparatively low on the Spotify and YouTube numbers. This all suggests BPM's lack of mainstream crossover could see them denied again.

Hardlight - Spacey Jane

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #4

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): N/A
Sportsbet: $7.50 (fourth favourite)
TAB: $6 (fourth favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: #2

Spotify streams: 4.55m

YouTube plays: 408k

Why it will win: triple j listeners love the absolute shit out of this band. Spacey Jane's Here Comes Everybody was voted best album of 2022 by triple j listeners, and there are seven SJ songs in the voting guide to choose from. 100 Warm Tunas is tipping five of those will make the countdown, and while this kind of thing can split the band's vote, it's worth noting Queens Of The Stone Age won in 2002 with five songs in the 100. Spacey Jane have already had eight songs in the countdown since bursting onto the scene in 2019, including a #2 in 2020 and #3 last year. They've got good Hottest 100 form.

Why it won't win: Oddly, this is the least streamed of the three Spacey Jane songs predicted to go high. The bookies and 100 Warm Tunas both rate this a solid #4, and it doesn't seem to have the crossover appeal or X factor you'd expect for a #1. And while you should never write off the much-loved Spacey Jane, it's hard to see this track being as iconic as Say Nothing or In The Wake Of Your Leave.

Say Nothing - Flume feat. MAY-A

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #3

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #1
Sportsbet: $1.83 (favourite)
TAB: $1.75 (favourite)

ARIA: #16

Patrick Avenell: #4

Spotify streams: 37.9m

YouTube plays: 4m

Why it will win: If the machines and bookies are to be believed, Flume is in line for a rare double. Powderfinger is the only act to ever win twice, but Flume is primed to equal that record. Say Nothing is the only ARIA top 20 single in the Warm Tunas top five, and has the most streams of any Aussie expected to go high. This counts for a lot in terms of mainstream crossover. This is the song to beat.

Why it won't win: It's hard to see anything beating Flume, who has seven songs in the voting guide. Maybe that will work against him and split his vote, but all signs are pointing at Flume. triple j's early post that it was a close vote is the only piece of information that will raise some doubts, along with the the fact that Warm Tunas places it third in terms of hard numbers. Maybe the AI is wrong.

New Gold - Gorillaz feat. Tame Impala & Bootie Brown

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #5

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): N/A
Sportsbet: $26 (seventh favourite)
TAB: $15 (equal sixth favourite)

ARIA: #44

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 61.3m

YouTube plays: 10.3m

Why it will win: If Gorillaz get in at all, it will give Damon Albarn Hottest 100 entries 30 countdowns apart (Blur were in the inaugural 1993 poll with For Tomorrow at #90). Albarn's cartoon hip hop/pop act hasn't charted since 2010, but that might just give it cross-generational voting - throw Tame Impala's chorus hook on to Albarn's undying appeal, and you could see the votes coming from wide-ranging demographics. The song did sneak into the ARIA top 50, so there could be enough elements to get this home as a dark horse.

Why it won't win: The bookies have this a solid sixth or seventh, and its Sportsbet odds have been gradually lengthening in recent weeks. Patrick Avenell doesn't even have it in his top 10, and Warm Tunas doesn't see it getting higher than #5. For all it's cross-generational, mainstream-meets-triple j coolness, New Gold probably isn't going to get to the top. It's also worth remembering that hip hop songs are still a rarity at #1, with just two rappers winning in the last nine years.

B.O.T.A (Baddest Of Them All) - Eliza Rose & Interplanetary Criminal

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #12

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML:) #7
Sportsbet: $3.50 (second favourite)
TAB: $4 (equal second favourite)

ARIA: #4

Patrick Avenell: #8

Spotify streams: 158.78m

YouTube plays: 24.8m

Why it will win: The bookies love this, and they sometimes seem to know something others don't. Warm Tunas' machines think this will do a lot better than the hard numbers say - it's one of the biggest improvers when ML is applied. It's also been a top five single in Australia. Female vocals have won twice in the past six years. Add all this up, and BOTA could be the best chance at knocking off Flume and MAY-A.

Why it won't win: Maybe too commercial for triple j listeners' tastes (though that line is often hard to find these days). But of the big ARIA-charting hopefuls (include Joji and Steve Lacy in that group), this has had the fewest streams. And Warm Tunas doesn't see it even cracking the top five, despite what the bookies say.

Camp Dog - King Stingray

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #7

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #16
Sportsbet: $51 (13th favourite)
TAB: $15 (equal sixth favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 936k

YouTube plays: 101k

Why it will win: This is the underdog (pun intended) in this race. When triple j asked fellow musos who they'd voted for, King Stingray came up the most. Lots of people would love to see an indigenous #1, and there's a lot of love for King Stingray. They were the #14 most-played act on triple j this year, #5 in listeners' favourite album of 2022, and had two songs in last year's countdown. Warm Tunas is predicting three songs in the top 50 for King Stingray. And when you look at the difference between the two bookies listed here, and between Warm Tunas with ML on and off, it's hard to pin down where exactly this song could finish. Can all that love and support carry them to the top on a wave of positive feels?

Why it won't win: Warm Tunas' machines say this is one of the most over-represented songs in terms of hard numbers. And Aussie guitar rock definitely shows up higher in the Tunas than it does in the Hottest 100. There's a lot of goodwill behind this band, but its numbers are all over the place. Bookies don't agree, Warm Tunas and its machines don't agree. This one would have to come out of nowhere to take the prize.

And here are some other songs destined to do well:

Bad Habit - Steve Lacy

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #14

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #10
Sportsbet: $17 (fifth favourite)
TAB: $15 (equal sixth favourite)

ARIA: #3

Patrick Avenell: #3

Spotify streams: 562m

YouTube plays: 80m

It's Been A Long Day - Spacey Jane

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #16

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML) #18
Sportsbet: $81 (18th favourite)
TAB: $41 (equal 17th favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: #7

Spotify streams: 6.13m

YouTube plays: 217k

Sitting Up - Spacey Jane

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #6

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #8
Sportsbet: $34 (equal ninth)
TAB: $21 (12th favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 6.57m

YouTube plays: 306.6k

Girl Sports - Teen Jesus & The Jean Teasers

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #9

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): N/A
Sportsbet: $126 (equal 25th favourite)
TAB: $41 (equal 17th favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 816k

YouTube plays: 21k

Delilah (Pull Me Out Of This) - Fred Again

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #8

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #6
Sportsbet: $31 (eighth favourite)
TAB: $17 (equal ninth favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 28.6m

YouTube plays: 2m

This Is Why - Paramore

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #11

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): N/A
Sportsbet: $126 (equal 25th favourite)
TAB: $17 (equal 9th favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 34.1m

YouTube plays: 9.82m

Glimpse Of Us - Joji

100 Warm Tunas (w/o ML): #17

100 Warm Tunas (w/ ML): #12
Sportsbet: $34 (equal ninth favourite)
TAB: $26 (13th favourite)

ARIA: #1

Patrick Avenell: N/A

Spotify streams: 760.1m

YouTube plays: 102m

And here's my top 10 prediction:

1. Say Nothing - Flume feat. MAY-A

2. In The Wake Of Your Leave - Gang Of Youths

3. Hardlight - Spacey Jane

4. BOTA (Baddest Of Them All) - Eliza Rose & Interplanetary Criminal

5. Bad Habit - Steve Lacy

6. Stars In My Eyes - Ball Park Music

7. New Gold - Gorillaz feat. Tame Impala & Bootie Brown

8. Delilah (Pull Me Out Of This) - Fred again..

9. Glimpse of Us - Joji

10. God Is A Bit Of A Freak - Peach PRC