Who will win triple j's Hottest 100 of Like A Versions?

 

triple j airs its Hottest 100 of Like A Versions this weekend. The segment, now 20-ish years old, has brought in a hugely talented array of artists to create more than 850 covers over the years. Some have been incredible, some have been, well, this one feels like satire (seriously, it's a joke, right?). 

But what makes a good cover? Let's explore that question while we try to figure out who's going to win this weekend's countdown.

As with previous Hottest 100s, I've looked at a range of factors to explore the likely contenders. This one's a bit different though. Social media vote aggregator 100 Warm Tunas is still a thing, but there seems to be fewer votes ie. less data for it to work with, which means it could be less accurate than usual. ARIA chart appearances are basically non-existent, but appearances in previous countdowns is definitely a thing. It seems like YouTube plays could be key element, and who knows whether the bookies will get it right this time.

All in all, this might be a tough one to predict. But read on....

Note: All stats and odds correct at time of writing.

Also note: I'm using Sportsbet's odds as an indicator, not an endorsement. Remember: you win some, you lose more. What are you really gambling with? Chances are, you're about to lose. What's gambling really costing you? Imagine what you could be buying instead. Don't be a deadshit. Etc, etc.

Also also note: You can listen to the countdown this Saturday (July 15) from midday (AEST) on triple j and Double J.

Believe - DMA's (2016)

Warm Tunas: #1
Sportsbet: $1.33 (favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #6
YouTube: 12,504,762 views

Why it will win: Stripping Cher's blockbuster of its autotune and dancefloor excesses, DMA's found a startling ballad at the song's heart. The surprise was part of the cover's appeal, along with the nostalgia for the original. Take note of that last point - most of the favourites to poll well are older tunes pre-2005, brimming with nostalgia, with a notable exception being The Wiggles' LAV, in which the nostalgia lies with the band, not the cover. Warm Tunas has this as a strong favourite, and it's only been wrong twice since it began in 2016. The bookies like it too.

Why it won't win: This only placed #6 in its original countdown - two other LAVs have polled higher. And it's so hyped that maybe there will be a strong cohort of voters pushing against it. Probably not, but you never know.

Bulls On Parade - Denzel Curry (2019)

Warm Tunas: #2
Sportsbet: $4 (second favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #5
YouTube: 12,750,917 views

Why it will win: With a tight band around him, Denzel Curry ramped up the not-so-secret ingredient in Rage Against The Machine's music - the anger - for this ball-tearing cover. Sounding more ferocious than even Zack de la Rocha, Curry's spits his own rhymes (from his track Sirens) in place of Tom Morello's guitar solo and in the process set a then-record for the highest placed LAV in a Hottest 100. If any song if going to top Believe, it's this faithfully furious diatribe against the American military industrial complex. 

Why it won't win: Warm Tunas and Sportsbet have this as a very clear second. It really does seem like it's DMA's' countdown to lose, and maybe there are people out there that still don't like rap and/or Rage Against The Machine and who didn't vote for this but those people are weird and you shouldn't be friends with them. 

Blood - Gang Of Youths (2017)

Warm Tunas: #3
Sportsbet: $26 (seventh favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #41
YouTube: 5,502,447 views

Why it will win: This symphonic cover of Blood has grown in stature alongside the ever-rising star of Gang Of Youths. Originally by defunct-before-their-time Aussie indie folk band The Middle East, Gang Of Youths made it sound like a Gang Of Youths song, without losing any of the passion in the original. In fact, with their string section and Dave Le'aupepe's magnetic presence, they turn that passion up to 11. Gang Of Youths have had six songs in the top 10 of the Hottest 100 since 2017 - they're in fine form for these countdowns.

Why it won't win: There are 13 LAVs that finished in a higher position in a Hottest 100 countdown than this one. The bookies don't rate it much either, and YouTube plays are less than half of those for Believe and Bulls On Parade. Plus, The Middle East's original version is much loved and incredible, don't get me wrong, but it's not as universal as many of the other tunes on this shortlist. Yes, it reached #64 in the Hottest 100 of 2009 and has 59 million plays on Spotify, but, for example, Bulls On Parade has 359 million, Cher's Believe has 491 million, and even The Divinyls' I Touch Myself has 79 million.

I Touch Myself - Lime Cordiale (2019)

Warm Tunas: #4
Sportsbet: $21 (fifth favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #17
YouTube: 1,373,284 views

Why it will win: We're getting deeper and deeper into hypothetical territory here but let's assume for a moment that DMA's' Believe isn't an unbackable favourite and turn our attention to this cheery-yet-straight-faced rendition of The Divinyls' beloved ode to self love. Lime Cordiale give the song a Lime Cordiale flavour, but it's not a million miles from the original - it's an inspired choice for the band because it suits their winking (yes, winking) sunshiny pop sound down to the ground. In terms of previous Hottest 100 placings for LAVs, this is in the top five, and Sportsbet has good odds on this being a top three finish, despite it only being fifth favourite. And keep in mind, Lime Cordiale have a remarkable 16 Hottest 100 entries in the past five countdowns, including eight top 20 finishes. This could be a dark horse.

Why it won't win: Those YouTube view numbers are well below the previously mentioned covers, and the bookies like this as second or third, but not first. Warm Tunas has this clumped in with a big pile of songs that appear on between 14 and 12 per cent of lists. None of this bodes well for this wonderfully cheeky LAV climaxing at #1.

Elephant - The Wiggles (2021)

Warm Tunas: #14
Sportsbet: $15 (fourth favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #1
YouTube: 5,312,136 views

Why it will win: Here it is: the only LAV to ever win a Hottest 100. One of my friends summed up its 2021 victory as exactly what we needed to cap off a shitty year of pandemic-induced depression. It was a win for hope, fun and positive vibes; a warm blanket of nostalgia created by the band that evoked a million childhoods, playing a classic tune (#7 in 2012) by one of the most popular Aussie acts of the past 15 years. It was a match made in heaven. It was the LAV we never knew we needed.

Why it won't win: It was a time and a place, and there's a deep feeling that the novelty of this has worn off somewhat. It will still hit a slice of voters in the feels, but if Warm Tunas is anything to go by, this medley of Elephant and Fruit Salad is slightly past its use-by date.

Baby Come Back - Ocean Alley (2018)

Warm Tunas: #11
Sportsbet: $23 (sixth favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #16
YouTube: 5,680,784 views

Why it will win: Ok, so today I discovered that the bass player on the original version of this song by soft rockers Player was Ronn Moss, aka Ridge from long-running US soap opera The Bold & The Beautiful. Mind blown. That aside, this beautiful piece of yacht rock suited Ocean Alley down to the ground, who rendered it in faithfully smooth tones. This is the fourth highest finishing LAV of all time, and it's popularity on YouTube rivals Gang Of Youths' LAV. Ocean Alley have a Hottest 100 victory under their belts, winning in the year they recorded this cover. Who knows - maybe with Confidence out of the running it could pave the way for this cover from the long-haired band from the Northern Beaches. 

Why it won't win: A very popular cover, and will do well, but not well enough. Warm Tunas has it outside the top 10, and the bookies have it outside the top five. The original dates back to 1977 - is it that too far back for the (mostly) young voters of triple j?

Yellow - King Stingray (2022)

Warm Tunas: #8
Sportsbet: $41 (equal 12th favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #43
YouTube: 577,891 views

Why it will win: There's something bloody magical about this cover. The switch from banjo to bass. Yirrŋa Yunupiŋu singing in language. The direct power of the adapted melody. The absolute epic beauty of it all. It probably shouldn't work but it does, and that's the awesome thing about it. Leaving all the numbers and data and evidence aside, King Stingray's version of Coldplay's breakthrough anthem Yellow hits people in the feels. There are others likely to poll high in the countdown that similarly tug at the heartstrings - Sarah Blasko's Life On Mars? and Regina Spektor's Real Love to name but two - but for true overwhelming emotion, this is the one.

Why it won't win: Numbers are cold. They don't care about your feelings. They don't care that this song makes you fucking cry. They don't care that this is a beautiful moment of worlds coming together. They don't care that this is a rare instance of harmonious unity between the oldest continuous living culture on Earth and the culture that sought to wipe it out. Number don't care.

Fuck numbers.

Dumb Things - A.B. Original ft Paul Kelly & Dan Sultan (2016)

Warm Tunas: #6
Sportsbet: $31 (equal eighth favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #45
YouTube: 3,655,384 views

Why it will win: It's kinda cheating to get the original artist to join you on your cover, right? Or is it a secret weapon. Briggs and Trials (aka A.B. Original) got the great man himself Paul Kelly to lay down the choruses while they slay the nation, taking PK's bar-room favourite to new polemic heights. Much like Denzel Curry on Bulls On Parade, or The Herd on I Was Only 19, this LAV shows how rap is an instrument, both musical and of social justice. 

Why it won't win: There's a solid top 10 finish ahead for Dumb Things, but it would be an unexpected, but not undeserved, win if it made it to #1. 

Welcome To The Black Parade - Alex Lahey (2019)

Warm Tunas: #7
Sportsbet: $51 (equal 16th favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #83
YouTube: 1,888,440 views

Why it will win: Alex Lahey and her band (hey, there's G Flip!) play it straight down the line for her rendition of the great emo anthem, taking My Chemical Romance's original and covering it like they love the absolute shit out of it. They ape every bell, whistle and groove change with a punk-rock adoration, nailing a highwire performance that feels like it could fall off at any point but never does. Warm Tunas has this as part of a clump of songs appearing in 14 per cent of votes, which puts it within striking distance of fourth place, but I know what a huge sentimental favourite this is for people, and surely that counts for something right?

Why it won't win: The numbers aren't great on this. In fact it's only the 31st highest finishing LAV of all time, though it was the third highest in its year (behind Lime Cordiale and Denzel Curry - what a year for LAV). There's a helluva lot of love for this one, but not enough to get it across the line for #1.

AusMusic Month Medley - Illy (2013)

Warm Tunas: #5
Sportsbet: $13 (third favourite)

Previous Hottest 100 placing: #66
YouTube: 6,255,260 views

Why it will win: The bookies rate this highly - even higher than Blood and I Touch Myself. Warm Tunas puts in the top five, ahead of Yellow and Welcome To The Black Parade. It's 10 years old and a lot of people still love it. But perhaps the biggest thing working in the favour of this mashup is that it's a surreptitious way to vote for four covers in one, with references to half a dozen other songs thrown into boot. Featuring Frenzal Rhomb's Lindsay MacDougal on guitar, Kira Puru on vocals, and the same cellist from Gang Of Youths' Blood LAV (Hanna Oblikov, for those who are wondering), it's an all-star celebration of Aussie music that's hard to ignore.

Why it won't win: This is a dark horse, but the medley nature that appeals to a lot of people probably turns off just as many who want to just hear a song, not a mashup, goddammit.

Other songs to watch out for (with original Hottest 100 placing in brackets):

I Was Only 19 - The Herd, 2005 (18)

(Lover) You Don't Treat Me No Good - Chet Faker, 2014 (21)

Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again? - Dune Rats, 2022 (23)

Pumped Up Kicks - Owl Eyes, 2011 (28)

Real Love - Regina Spektor, 2007 (29)

Here Comes the Sun - Spacey Jane, 2021 (30)

Shooting Stars - Flume ft. Toro y Moi, 2022 (30)

Get Lucky - San Cisco, 2013 (39)

Brother - Thundamentals, 2012 (49)

Do I Wanna Know? - Chvrches, 2014 (54)

Breathe/Comfortably Numb/Money - Ocean Alley, 2021 (54)

Keeping Score - Paces ft. Guy Sebastian, 2016 (56)

And for the record, here are my votes: