 |
| Olivia Dean is the hot favourite to win this year's Hottest 100. |
The last Hottest 100 predictor left standing, this social media-scraping algorithm has been shuttered by its creator Nick Whyte.
The reasons are many, varied, complex, and detailed here in this post from Whyte, but I would like to add that while triple j were never happy with his spoiler-iffic programming skills, I found it fascinating and invaluable in writing up my own half-arsed predictions each year. Thanks Nick, and all the best in the future.
But, as they say in the classics, the show must go on.
Before we dive into predicting the upcoming triple j Hottest 100, here's your annual reminder about some of the great songs that surprisingly missed the countdown over the years as included in this definitive list of the Hottest 100 omissions of all time compiled by myself, Tyler Jenke and Patrick Avenell (which is absolutely due for an update some day).
Anyway, I love the absolute shit out of triple j's Hottest 100. Much like Christmas, it's an occasion that brings people together to argue and drink too much, but with the greatest gift of all - quantifiable statistics about music.
The 2025 countdown is on January 24, and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.
Predicting a winner in recent years has been somewhat easier thanks to there being clear favourites from the outset - Flume and May-a, Doja Cat, and Chappell Roan were all odds-on to win.
With Warm Tunas gone, that leaves the bookies and Tik Tok as the best indicators to predict a winner, though I will continue to throw the ARIA charts, Spotify and YouTube plays, and triple j's own most-played acts list into the mix.
So let's do this thing, shall we?
All stats/odds correct at the time of publishing.
And remember - gamble responsibly.
Olivia Dean - Man I Need
Why it will win: triple j has fallen head over heels for Dean, whose jazzy second album has rocketed the Brit singer from out of nowhere to being the third most-played act on their playlist. Man I Need is the biggest of her six songs to hit the ARIA charts last year (and of the five songs in the voting guide), reaching #2, and it's a hot favourite with the bookies. All of this (but especially the chart crossover success) mean it's the song to beat.
Why it won't win: If Tik Tok is truly ruling the Hottest 100 as many claim, then there are artists dominating that social platform way more than Olivia Dean, including Doechii and sombr. Also, triple j has been playing Spacey Jane and Ninajirachi more (though that probably doesn't matter), and there are songs in the voting guide with more plays on Spotify and YouTube (which also probably doesn't matter).
triple j's most played acts: #3
Sportsbet: $1.44 (favourite)
Ladbrokes: $1.35 (favourite)
ARIA: #2
Spotify streams: 570 million
YouTube plays: 42 million
Keli Holiday - Dancing2
Why it will win: One of the dudes from Peking Duk has a massive hit on his hands with this love child of Gang Of Youths and LCD Soundsystem. Performing it at the ARIAs gave it a massive bump, and when it kicks in proper three and half minutes in (complete with saxophone) it's hard to deny. While it doesn't have the same crossover appeal of Olivia Dean's Man I Need, it's the song most likely to beat it if the buzz, bookies and readers of Rolling Stone Australia are to be believed.
Why it won't win: There's a sizeable online backlash against Holiday (real name Adam Hyde) for reasons that I don't fully comprehend - sample reddit thread titles include "Why does everyone hate Keli Holiday so much?", "Dancing2 sucks", "I Hate Keli Holiday and I sadly can never look at Tim Curry the same way again", and "Adam Hyde can't sing for shit". Will that be enough to keep Keli from top spot?
triple j's most played acts: Not in top 50.
Sportsbet: $3.75 (second favourite)
Ladbrokes: $4.25 (second favourite)
ARIA: #66
Spotify streams: 10 million
YouTube plays: 606,000
Playlunch - Keith
Why it will win: This is the surprise hit of 2025. An hilarious film clip starring ex-footballer Barry Hall has helped make this super niche "bogan funk" band go viral, it could be the kind of jokey throwback reminscent of such novelty Hottest 100 winners as Denis Leary's Asshole, The Offspring's Pretty Fly For A White Guy, and The Wiggles' cover of Elephant. The big thinking around The Wiggles winning was that it was exactly the ray of sunshine we all needed in the dark days of 2021. Maybe the same theory could apply to Melbourne's Play Lunch in these dark days of 2025.
Why it won't win: I was certain back in 2021 that The Wiggles couldn't win, but dammit, I know I'm right this time when I say Play Lunch won't win. The novelty song largely died in the '90s, and although this has enough momentum to propel it into the top 10, it seems impossible that it could win.
triple j's most played acts: Not in top 50
Sportsbet: $5 (third favourite)
Ladbrokes: $9 (equal third favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 1.3 million
YouTube plays: 727,000
Ninajirachi - iPod Touch
Why it will win: With three ARIAs, a top 20 album, and two J Awards, and as triple j's second most played act of 2025, it's truly been Ninajirachi's year. A top placing in the Hottest 100 would really cap it off, and there's a lot of love out there for Nina Wilson's glitchy, catchy "girl EDM". While Fuck My Computer should also chart high, iPod Touch is the standout track on her much-loved album I Love My Computer. If anything from Ninajirachi is gonna win it, it's iPod Touch.
Why it won't win: Despite the ARIA acclaim, that hasn't translated on to the actual ARIA singles charts. And while you can argue the relevancy of them, the fact remains that Chappell Roan's Good Luck Babe spent 37 weeks in the singles chart prior to winning the Hottest 100 (including 16 weeks in the top 10), Doja Cat's Paint The Town Red spent 23 weeks in singles chart prior to winning (including 10 weeks at #1), and even Flume and May-a's Say Nothing spent nine weeks in the top 50 prior to winning (including debuting at #16). Outside of The Wiggles' Elephant, being in the ARIA charts still seems to matter.
triple j's most played acts: #2
Sportsbet: $11 (fourth favourite)
Ladbrokes: $9 (equal third favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Spotify streams: 6 million
YouTube plays: 483,000
Tame Impala - Dracula
Why it will win: With 19 annual Hottest 100 entries (and #19 in the All Time Aussie Hottest 100 earlier this year, thank you very much), Kevin Parker AKA Tame Impala is triple j royalty. Parker's never gone higher than #4 in an annual countdown, so maybe he's due. The album Deadbeat was a worldwide hit and Dracula is only the second Tame Impala song to crack the ARIA top 50, which is a good sign. Given the way acts age out of triple j's playlist, this might be Parker's last chance to win the thing without having The Wiggles playing one of his songs.
Why it won't win: There's a certain subset of people that feel Tame Impala's best work is behind them. And while Dracula is catchy and dancey and Parker's best chance to win since The Less I Know The Better in 2015, it's got a big battle to beat Olivia Dean and Keli Holiday.
triple j's most played acts: #12
Sportsbet: $13 (fifth favourite)
Ladbrokes: $17 (fifth favourite)
ARIA: #28
Spotify streams: 178 million
YouTube plays: 13 million
And some other songs to keep an ear out for....
Spacey Jane - Whateverrrr
Raye - Where Is My Husband!
Sombr - 12 to 12
Dom Dolla feat. Daya - Dreamin
Ball Park Music - Please Don't Move To Melbourne
Addison Rae - Fame Is A Gun
Doechii - Anxiety
Chappell Roan - The Subway
No comments:
Post a Comment