Who will win triple j's Hottest 100 of 2025?

Olivia Dean is the hot favourite to win this year's Hottest 100.

It's with real sadness in my heart that I acknowledge the end of 100 Warm Tunas.

The last Hottest 100 predictor left standing, this social media-scraping algorithm has been shuttered by its creator Nick Whyte.

The reasons are many, varied, complex, and detailed here in this post from Whyte, but I would like to add that while triple j were never happy with his spoiler-iffic programming skills, I found it fascinating and invaluable in writing up my own half-arsed predictions each year. Thanks Nick, and all the best in the future.

But, as they say in the classics, the show must go on.

Before we dive into predicting the upcoming triple j Hottest 100, here's your annual reminder about some of the great songs that surprisingly missed the countdown over the years as included in this definitive list of the Hottest 100 omissions of all time compiled by myself, Tyler Jenke and Patrick Avenell (which is absolutely due for an update some day).

Anyway, I love the absolute shit out of triple j's Hottest 100. Much like Christmas, it's an occasion that brings people together to argue and drink too much, but with the greatest gift of all - quantifiable statistics about music.

The 2025 countdown is on January 24, and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.

Predicting a winner in recent years has been somewhat easier thanks to there being clear favourites from the outset - Flume and May-a, Doja Cat, and Chappell Roan were all odds-on to win.

With Warm Tunas gone, that leaves the bookies and Tik Tok as the best indicators to predict a winner, though I will continue to throw the ARIA charts, Spotify and YouTube plays, and triple j's own most-played acts list into the mix.

So let's do this thing, shall we?

All stats/odds correct at the time of publishing.

And remember - gamble responsibly.

Olivia Dean - Man I Need

Why it will win: triple j has fallen head over heels for Dean, whose jazzy second album has rocketed the Brit singer from out of nowhere to being the third most-played act on their playlist. Man I Need is the biggest of her six songs to hit the ARIA charts last year (and of the five songs in the voting guide), reaching #2, and it's a hot favourite with the bookies. All of this (but especially the chart crossover success) mean it's the song to beat.

Why it won't win: If Tik Tok is truly ruling the Hottest 100 as many claim, then there are artists dominating that social platform way more than Olivia Dean, including Doechii and sombr. Also, triple j has been playing Spacey Jane and Ninajirachi more (though that probably doesn't matter), and there are songs in the voting guide with more plays on Spotify and YouTube (which also probably doesn't matter).

triple j's most played acts: #3

Sportsbet: $1.44 (favourite)

Ladbrokes: $1.35 (favourite)

ARIA: #2

Spotify streams: 570 million

YouTube plays: 42 million

Keli Holiday - Dancing2

Why it will win: One of the dudes from Peking Duk has a massive hit on his hands with this love child of Gang Of Youths and LCD Soundsystem. Performing it at the ARIAs gave it a massive bump, and  when it kicks in proper three and half minutes in (complete with saxophone) it's hard to deny. While it doesn't have the same crossover appeal of Olivia Dean's Man I Need, it's the song most likely to beat it if the buzz, bookies and readers of Rolling Stone Australia are to be believed. 

Why it won't win: There's a sizeable online backlash against Holiday (real name Adam Hyde) for reasons that I don't fully comprehend - sample reddit thread titles include "Why does everyone hate Keli Holiday so much?", "Dancing2 sucks", "I Hate Keli Holiday and I sadly can never look at Tim Curry the same way again", and "Adam Hyde can't sing for shit". Will that be enough to keep Keli from top spot? 

triple j's most played acts: Not in top 50.

Sportsbet: $3.75 (second favourite)

Ladbrokes: $4.25 (second favourite) 

ARIA: #66

Spotify streams: 10 million

YouTube plays: 606,000

Playlunch - Keith

Why it will win: This is the surprise hit of 2025. An hilarious film clip starring ex-footballer Barry Hall has helped make this super niche "bogan funk" band go viral, it could be the kind of jokey throwback reminscent of such novelty Hottest 100 winners as Denis Leary's Asshole, The Offspring's Pretty Fly For A White Guy, and The Wiggles' cover of Elephant. The big thinking around The Wiggles winning was that it was exactly the ray of sunshine we all needed in the dark days of 2021. Maybe the same theory could apply to Melbourne's Play Lunch in these dark days of 2025.

Why it won't win: I was certain back in 2021 that The Wiggles couldn't win, but dammit, I know I'm right this time when I say Play Lunch won't win. The novelty song largely died in the '90s, and although this has enough momentum to propel it into the top 10, it seems impossible that it could win.

triple j's most played acts: Not in top 50

Sportsbet: $5 (third favourite)

Ladbrokes: $9 (equal third favourite) 

ARIA: N/A

Spotify streams: 1.3 million

YouTube plays: 727,000

Ninajirachi - iPod Touch

Why it will win: With three ARIAs, a top 20 album, and two J Awards, and as triple j's second most played act of 2025, it's truly been Ninajirachi's year. A top placing in the Hottest 100 would really cap it off, and there's a lot of love out there for Nina Wilson's glitchy, catchy "girl EDM". While Fuck My Computer should also chart high, iPod Touch is the standout track on her much-loved album I Love My Computer. If anything from Ninajirachi is gonna win it, it's iPod Touch.

Why it won't win: Despite the ARIA acclaim, that hasn't translated on to the actual ARIA singles charts. And while you can argue the relevancy of them, the fact remains that Chappell Roan's Good Luck Babe spent 37 weeks in the singles chart prior to winning the Hottest 100 (including 16 weeks in the top 10), Doja Cat's Paint The Town Red spent 23 weeks in singles chart prior to winning (including 10 weeks at #1), and even Flume and May-a's Say Nothing spent nine weeks in the top 50 prior to winning (including debuting at #16). Outside of The Wiggles' Elephant, being in the ARIA charts still seems to matter.

triple j's most played acts: #2

Sportsbet: $11 (fourth favourite)

Ladbrokes: $9 (equal third favourite)

ARIA: N/A

Spotify streams: 6 million

YouTube plays: 483,000

Tame Impala - Dracula

Why it will win: With 19 annual Hottest 100 entries (and #19 in the All Time Aussie Hottest 100 earlier this year, thank you very much), Kevin Parker AKA Tame Impala is triple j royalty. Parker's never gone higher than #4 in an annual countdown, so maybe he's due. The album Deadbeat was a worldwide hit and Dracula is only the second Tame Impala song to crack the ARIA top 50, which is a good sign. Given the way acts age out of triple j's playlist, this might be Parker's last chance to win the thing without having The Wiggles playing one of his songs.

Why it won't win: There's a certain subset of people that feel Tame Impala's best work is behind them. And while Dracula is catchy and dancey and Parker's best chance to win since The Less I Know The Better in 2015, it's got a big battle to beat Olivia Dean and Keli Holiday.

triple j's most played acts: #12

Sportsbet: $13 (fifth favourite)

Ladbrokes: $17 (fifth favourite)

ARIA: #28

Spotify streams: 178 million

YouTube plays: 13 million

And some other songs to keep an ear out for....

Spacey Jane - Whateverrrr

Raye - Where Is My Husband!

Sombr - 12 to 12

Dom Dolla feat. Daya - Dreamin

Ball Park Music - Please Don't Move To Melbourne

Addison Rae - Fame Is A Gun

Doechii - Anxiety

Chappell Roan - The Subway

REWIND REVIEW: Ocean's Eleven (2001)

(M) ★★★★★

Director: Steven Soderbergh.

Cast: George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Julia Roberts, Matt Damon, Andy Garcia, Don Cheadle, Bernie Mac, Carl Reiner, Casey Affleck, Scott Caan, Elliott Gould, Eddie Jemison, Qin Shaobo.

Rare image of Brad Pitt not eating during Ocean's Eleven.

"Siri, show me the epitome of cool, circa 2001."

*Siri begins playing a clip from Ocean's Eleven featuring Brad Pitt and George Clooney looking stylish as fuck, backed by David Holmes' new-millennium funk score.*

They don't make films like Ocean's Eleven any more. Even when they made Ocean's Eleven, they didn't make films like Ocean's Eleven any more.

Here's how director Steven Soderbergh put it while promoting the film:

"When I say Ocean's Eleven is a throwback to an earlier period in cinema, I mean that the movie is never mean, it's never gratuitous, nobody is killed, (and) nobody is humiliated for no reason or is the butt of a joke.  

"It's probably the least threatening film I've ever made in a way. That was conscious on my part. I wanted it to be a sort of light entertainment and I didn't think darker or meaner ideas had a place in a movie like this. I wanted it to be sparkling."

And sparkle it does. In fact, it sparkles in a way the original didn't, something the cast and crew seemed to be aware of. 

"The original Ocean's 11 is probably more notorious than it is good," Soderbergh conceded while on the junket.

Clooney was equally honest. "The truth is, most people never saw the original Ocean's 11," he told reporters. "They just think they have because those guys were the coolest." 

"Those guys" were the Rat Pack, led by Frank Sinatra, Dean Martin and Sammy Davis Jr. The original Ocean's 11 was released to middling reviews - Rotten Tomatoes' consensus calls it "easy-going but lazy, blithely coast(ing) on the well-established rapport of the Rat Pack royalty". Empire Magazine, in rating  Soderbergh's remake the 500th greatest film of all time back in 2013, noted "Soderbergh's starry update of the Rat Pack crime caper not only outshines its predecessor, but all the lights of The Strip combined".

It's obvious from the get-go that Soderbergh's sights were set on more than just surpassing the original. Save for the name of George Clooney's character, the notion of robbing multiple casinos at once, and a couple of blink-and-you'll-miss-'em cameos, Ocean's Eleven pays little heed to the original. 

Instead, Soderbergh plots and pulls off the gold standard for the modern heist movie, and does it via a film that doesn't have a mean-spirited bone in its body. It's somehow relaxed and friendly yet tense and thrilling. It's cool AF yet utterly approachable. It's droll and dry but absolutely fun. It's made in an era when every crime film wanted to be Tarantino-esque or Ritchie-esque, yet no one gets killed or shot or horribly maimed. It just sparkles.

Soderbergh's deft touch is responsible for a fair amount of this. He sets the tone early, ensuring that just like the members of the Eleven, we are won over by the charm. The aces up his sleeve, played within minutes of sitting at the table, are George Clooney and Brad Pitt. Pitt hasn't been this laidback on screen ever, and Clooney is a commanding presence without really trying. Together, they're so chill, they're liquid nitrogen. As Empire put it, the movie is "cooler than the penguin's crown jewels".

Similarly, Roberts is low-key and sublime, underplaying almost every moment. Even Garcia manages to fit the mood, avoiding chewing the scenario - something Pacino couldn't totally avoid when filling the villains' shoes come Ocean's Thirteen. And the rest of the Eleven are a testament to the importance of good casting. It's a perfect mix of burgeoning talent (Cheadle, Affleck), old pros (Reiner, Gould) and the solid team players of the time (Damon, Mac).

On paper, it looks like a royal flush. Great cast, director who was on a roll (previous four films: Out Of Sight, The Limey, Erin Brockovich, Traffic), and a story about a bunch of beautiful people doing an impossibly cool thing to someone who absolutely deserves it. But Ocean's Twelve shows how that can be a losing hand, so let's take a moment to appreciate Ted Griffin's screenplay. 

While its rabbit-out-of-a-hat plotting doesn't hold up to magnifying-glass-levels of scrutiny, it doesn't need to. One of the many impressive things about Ocean's Eleven is it maintains a nice level of tension despite nothing overly bad happening to any of the characters. There are ups and downs, and the underlying pressure of the heist, where every minimal thing has maximum consequences, keeps things ticking along. But it does so in the most remarkably laidback and relaxed way possible. People rarely yell and scream - they just sweat and undersell everything. It's a neat trick, because it puts us on the edge of our seats without pushing us there.

Heist films are bountiful, but Ocean's Eleven is evergreen. It stole all the money and our hearts in the process, and people are still talking about it almost 25 years on. A lot of that is down to the cool vibes and killer cast, but it takes real skill and effort to pull off a job like this. And Soderbergh is the mastermind, despite having never made a movie like this before. Yes, Out Of Sight was criminally cool, and Traffic had a cast to die for, but Ocean's Eleven showed he could do anything and everything, something he's still doing to this day.

My top 10 albums of 2025

Haven't done this for a while. But here we go.

Thanks to Joe Gardner and Brady Jones for the inspiration and reminder that this is a thing I used to do.

1. The Last Dinner Party - From The Pyre

I'm a sucker for something that can sound both classic and fresh at the same time, especially when it makes something that sounds truly unique. And while it's fun to say this sounds like Kate Bush fronting some kind of mashup of Queen and Fleetwood Mac, it's so much more than that - maybe PJ Harvey & The Bad Seeds? The first half of this record is as good as any in recent years, while the last half holds the late night growers. Filled with radiant harmonies and spicy riffs in amongst the baroque melodrama, this is as good as their debut from last year.

2. Merpire - Milk Pool

Remember being at parties and wondering if you could ever pluck up the courage to talk to some guy/girl? All those awkward anxieties fill Milk Pool, Merpire's second album, but in a good way - here they're like a nostalgic soundtrack filled with the coolest 'melodies and beautiful '90s-era scuzzy guitars. Merpire writes damned good songs that are just effective when she plays them solo on an electric guitar as they are on this dreamily produced album with a backing band.

3. Mclusky - The World Is Still Here and So Are We

Who said reunion albums have to suck? More than two decades on from the brilliant The Difference Between Me and You Is That I'm Not on Fire, mclusky return with plenty of absurdist vitriol and demented angst to make this feel like a very vital part of their legacy. The down-and-dirty riffs of Chekhov's Guns and The Digger You Deep are worth the price of admission alone.

4. Paul Dempsey - Shotgun Karaoke Vol II

Cover albums have no right to be this good. No one has the right to be this talented. Who the hell can sing Cher and Don Henley alongside Bright Eyes and Sugar with equal power and emotion? Truly the sign of someone who has made a deal with The Devil. 

5. Geese - Getting Killed

I'm still trying to figure out what this album is. All I know is I love it. The band fuses experimental  arrangements with beautiful rock songs, and Cameron Winter sounds like a crappy Thom Yorke and its amazing.

6. Deftones - Private Music

I haven't properly listened to Deftones for a while, but the first thing I heard of Private Music (Milk Of The Madonna) made me leap into it and I wasn't disappointed. This one is heavy yet beautiful, like the best vintage Deftones. Every song had me captivated.

7. Floodlights - Underneath

Euphoric and anthemic, this Melbourne band pull plenty of surprises in between their massive singalong hooks. The trumpet is a beautiful touch to the big rock numbers that sit somewhere between Gang Of Youths and Echo & The Bunnymen.

8. Bring Me The Horizon - Lo-files

All my favourite Bring Me The Horizon songs turned into lo-fi muzak is exactly the album I didn't know I needed, but here it is and I love it. It's super chill and super simple, but fantastic.

9. The Beths - Straight Line Was A Lie

So many great melodies and so much to love in the fourth album from NZ's finest. It's all there in the sweet pop of Til My Heart Stops, the jangle-pop of Metal, the fuzzy rock of the title track, and the punk pop of No Joy. So many great songs.

10. Viagra Boys - viagr aboys

Funny, funny shit, but also cool. Punk is at its best when its killer riffs are used to have a bit of fun or tear apart society, and somehow this is both those things. Like Butthole Surfers but with better hooks.

Honourable mentions: 

Bleak Squad - Strange Love

Pulp - More

Ball Park Music - Like Love

Ben Kweller - Cover The Mirrors