Usually when I analyse and forecast a Hottest 100, there are some pretty straight-forward factors to assess - vote aggregator 100 Warm Tunas, how much an artist has been played on triple j/Spotify/YouTube, ARIA chart position, Tik Tok views, and the bookies.
But compiling predictions on the Hottest 100 Australian songs of all time is much harder because it boils down to one indefinable quality - cultural cachet.
Run this poll annually, and you'll see songs rise and fall as their status and legacy are re-evaluated and re-assessed by an adoring public. Just look at the first three years of triple j's Hottest 100 when it was an All Time poll. There are 56 songs shared between the first two countdowns of 1989 and 1990, while the 1991 Hottest 100 only featured 39 songs that hadn't appeared in either 1989 or 1990. Part of the reason why triple j ditched the All Time format was because each year was going to be too similar, but it was, for a short time at least, a fascinating real-time record of cultural cachet. It was basically the national equivalent of how our favourite songs might change on any given day/week/month/year, depending on our mood and what comes to mind.
So how do we assess cultural cachet? I have no friggin' idea, but here is what I do know, which is a mix of available data, gut feeling, and intuition.
There have been 17 of Aussie winners of annual Hottest 100 countdowns. For the record, they are:
Past winners
There have been 17 of Aussie winners of annual Hottest 100 countdowns. For the record, they are:
Buy Me A Pony - Spiderbait (1996)
No Aphrodisiac - The Whitlams (1997)
These Days - Powderfinger (1999)
My Happiness - Powderfinger (2000)
Amazing - Alex Lloyd (2001)
Are You Gonna Be My Girl? - Jet (2003)
Wish You Well - Bernard Fanning (2005)
One Crowded Hour - Augie March (2006)
Big Jet Plane - Angus & Julia Stone (2010)
Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye feat. Kimbra (2011)
Riptide - Vance Joy (2013)
Talk Is Cheap - Chet Faker (2014)
Hoops - The Rubens (2015)
Never Be Like You - Flume feat. Kai (2016)
Confidence - Ocean Alley (2018)
Elephant - The Wiggles (2021)
Say Nothing - Flume feat. May-A (2022)
All of these songs are a pretty solid shot of making the Hottest 100 (except for The Wiggles' cover of Elephant, which is ineligible because triple j has ruled out Like A Versions, thank god).
But some are more likely than others. Songs like Amazing, Are You Gonna Be My Girl? and Hoops feel like their esteem has faded in the decades since they were voted in, while tracks such as Riptide and Somebody That I Used To Know have remained in the zeitgeist like bugs trapped in amber. Riptide has spent 14 weeks in the ARIA top 50 this year alone, for chrissake. If that's not a tick of approval, then I don't know what is.
Best of the '10s
Here are the top 10 Aussie songs from the best of the decade (2010-2019) Hottest 100 that aired in 2020 (with their actual finishing position in brackets):
1. The Less I Know The Better - Tame Impala (1)
2. Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye feat. Kimbra (2)
3. Covered In Chrome - Violent Soho (4)
4. Innerbloom - Rufus Du Sol (5)
5. Magnolia - Gang Of Youths (6)
6. Never Be Like You - Flume feat. Kai (8)
7. Big Jet Plane - Angus & Julia Stone (9)
8. Brother - Matt Corby (10)
9. Talk Is Cheap - Chet Faker (11)
10. Riptide - Vance Joy (13)
Six of these were previous Hottest 100 winners, which goes to show that's a meaningful stat. The non-winners in this list are also pretty key, and will more than likely make the Hottest 100 Australian songs of all time. Innerbloom in particular is one to watch - the original and a remix both made it into this countdown of the '10s.
2013's Hottest 100 of the previous 20 years
From 2013's Hottest 100 of the previous 20 years, here are the top 10 Aussie songs (with where they finished in that countdown in brackets):
1. The Nosebleed Section - Hilltop Hoods (4)
2. These Days - Powderfinger (8)
3. Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye feat. Kimbra (9)
4. My Happiness - Powderfinger (10)
5. Hearts A Mess - Gotye (12)
6. Tomorrow - Silverchair (17)
7. Prisoner Of Society - The Living End (20)
8. One Crowded Hour - Augie March (24)
9. Frontier Psychiatrist - The Avalanches (27)
10. Sweet Disposition - The Temper Trap (38)
Given that this poll covered 1993 to 2013, it's a really key one because it hits in the sweet spots for a lot of the older demographic that's likely to return to triple j for a vote. All these songs are a solid bet to make it into this poll, and I would be shocked, shocked I tell you, if these 10 don't make the 100.
The cover band version
The Horses - Daryl Braithwaite
Don't Dream It's Over - Crowded House
Khe Sanh - Cold Chisel
You're The Voice - John Farnham
Never Tear Us Apart - INXS
Thunderstruck - AC/DC
Beds Are Burning - Midnight Oil
Throw Your Arms Around Me - Hunters & Collectors
Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again? - The Angels
Down Under - Men At Work
I spent a lot of years playing covers songs in pubs, and it's quite the microcosm of musical criticism. If you ever doubt that Wonderwall really means a lot to people, go and hear it played live in a shitty pub through a shitty PA by a group of shitty musicians and see how it still hits the mark.
With that in mind, here are 10 songs that hit the pub band cover setlist/backyard BBQ playlist demographic that are a fair shot to make the list. And remember that thing I said before about cultural cachet? Well this list has a lot of it. The Horses is basically a meme, but irony is dead so it will go really high - expect it in the top 10. Don't Dream It's Over is edging towards a billion plays on Spotify and is the #1 Australian song on the ARIA charts at the moment. Thunderstruck is #2 on that same ARIA chart and has 1.8 billion plays. Am I Ever Gonna See Your Face Again? was a Like A Version in recent years, and Down Under got sampled and flogged on triple j recently as well. And I couldn't even squeeze Paul Kelly's How To Make Gravy in here, which got turned into a goddamn movie and has made the 21st of December into the next best thing to a national public holiday.
The Aussie albums list - can it teach us anything?
Here's the top 10 from the top 100 Aussie albums Hottest 100 that triple j did way back in 2011.
1. Odyssey Number Five - Powderfinger (2000)
2. Frogstomp - Silverchair (1995)
3. Back In Black - AC/DC (1980)
4. The Living End – The Living End (1999)
5. Kick - INXS (1987)
6. Internationalist - Powderfinger (1998)
7. Apocalypso - The Presets (2008)
8. Wolfmother – Wolfmother (2005)
9. Since I Left You - The Avalanches (2000)
10. Unit - Regurgitator (1997)
All of these bands are a shot to be in the countdown, but Powderfinger and Silverchair loom large. Powderfinger had four albums in the top 50, while Silverchair had all five of their albums within the top 70. These Days, My Happiness, Tomorrow, Straight Lines - these are the songs to watch from these two powerhouse bands.
The last all time list - 2009
It's been 16 years since triple j did a countdown of the Hottest 100 songs of all time (which Smells Like Teen Spirit won yet again), but here's every Aussie song that made the cut.
1. The Nosebleed Section - Hilltop Hoods (17)
2. These Days - Powderfinger (21)
3. Throw Your Arms Around Me - Hunters & Collectors (23)
4. My Happiness - Powderfinger (27)
5. Tomorrow - Silverchair (33)
6. Prisoner Of Society - The Living End (34)
7. Into My Arms - Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds (36)
8. Betterman - John Butler Trio (47)
9. Don't Dream It's Over - Crowded House (50)
10. Berlin Chair - You Am I (52)
11. One Crowded Hour - Augie March (59)
12. Thunderstruck - AC/DC (63)
13. Hearts A Mess - Gotye (77)
14. Back In Black - AC/DC (91)
15. Beds Are Burning - Midnight Oil (97)
The Nosebleed Section was #9 in its year and if you were paying attention you'll notice it's popped up on two other non-annual lists. It's a landmark track in Australian music - only 1200 Techniques' Karma precedes it as an announcement of the arrival of Aussie hip hop. But all 15 songs on this list are strong favourites to make the countdown come July 26.
Pop go the ladies
The Hottest 100 Australian songs of all time is going to be a sausage fest, because the history of Australian music has been dominated by men. triple j has proven that if you start playing a balance of music from male, female and nonbinary people, audiences love it, and will demonstrate this love by voting for music that isn't just performed by white dudes. But this upcoming countdown is going to be a return to the white men, because that's what history is.
With that in mind, here is the female pop equivalent list of that cover band list from earlier.
Can't Get You Out Of My Head - Kylie
Untouched - The Veronicas
My Island Home - Christine Anu
Born To Try - Delta Goodrem
Sweet About Me - Gabriella Cilmi
Chains - Tina Arena
Bedroom Eyes - Kate Ceberano
Physical - Olivia Newton John
I Touch Myself - Divinyls
Torn - Natalie Imbruglia
The bookies really rate that Veronicas song, and if there's not a Kylie song or two in the countdown I'll be hugely surprised. In terms of cultural cachet, Divinyls have never gone away, nor has Kylie or Natalie Imbruglia's cover of Torn, and is it just me or has Tina Arena been having a moment in recent years? These are all things to watch out for come July 26.
The most streamed Aussie songs on Spotify
This is by no means precise, but here (to the best of my reckoning) are the most streamed Aussie songs on Spotify that have previously appeared in an annual Hottest 100.
1. Stay - The Kid Laroi feat. Justin Beiber (3.56 billion)
2. Dance Monkey - Tones & I (3.28 billion)
3. Riptide - Vance Joy (3.18 billion)
4. Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye (2.14 billion)
5. Chandelier - Sia (2.033 billion)
6. The Less I Know The Better - Tame Impala (2.028 billion)
7. Be Alright - Dean Lewis (1.998 billion)
8. Glimpse Of Us - Joji (1.56 billion)
9. Walking On A Dream - Empire Of The Sun (1.23 billion)
10. Never Be Like You - Flume feat. Kai (0.967 billion)
"Overplayed" is totally a thing, but you can't ignore the sheer insanity of the numbers here. People aren't sick of these songs, even if you are, so watch out for some/all of these tracks to get a guernsey in the countdown.
Sportsbet
Here are the odds from Sportsbet (WHAT ARE YOU REALLY GAMBLING WITH?) as of July 10.
1. My Happiness - Powderfinger ($2.37)
2. The Nosebleed Section - Hilltop Hoods ($3.75)
3. The Less I Know The Better - Tame Impala ($8.50)
4. Innerbloom - Rufus Du Sol ($10)
5. Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye ft. Kimbra ($11)
6. These Days - Powderfinger ($13)
7. Untouched - The Veronicas ($15)
8. Down Under - Men At Work ($17)
8. How To Make Gravy - Paul Kelly ($17)
10. Riptide - Vance Joy ($19)
10. The Horses - Daryl Braithwaite ($19)
This is a really solid list. I'm stoked that it's close to my list, but who the hell knows, right? And remember: you win some, but you lose more.
So here are my predictions
1. These Days - Powderfinger
2. The Less I Know The Better - Tame Impala
3. The Nosebleed Section - Hilltop Hoods
4. Riptide - Vance Joy
5. Somebody That I Used To Know - Gotye feat. Kimbra
6. The Horses - Daryl Braithwaite
7. Innerbloom - Rufus Du Sol
8. Don't Dream It's Over - Crowded House
9. Walking On A Dream - Empire Of The Sun
10. Stay - The Kid Laroi feat. Justin Beiber
I feel like this takes all the bits and pieces of cultural cachet and data that I've been talking about and throws them together. I'm not super confident about The Kid Laroi, but recency bias and huge Spotify numbers get it into the top 10 for me. If I had to swap it out, I'd swap in a Flume track like Never Be Like You.
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