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| Chappell Roan |
Before I basically copy and paste the intro from previous blogs (I do this every year, folks), here's your annual reminder about some of the great songs that surprisingly missed the countdown over the years as included in this definitive list of the Hottest 100 omissions of all time compiled by myself, Tyler Jenke and Patrick Avenell (which is probably due for an update some day).
Anyway, I love the absolute shit out of triple j's Hottest 100. Much like Christmas, it's an occasion that brings people together to argue and drink too much, but with the greatest gift of all - quantifiable statistics about music.
The 2024 countdown is on January 25, and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.
Can we predict the winner? Well, social media-scraper 100 Warm Tunas has been right five out of eight times, but last year it was way off, placing hot favourite Doja Cat's Paint The Town Red at #9, despite the addition of machine learning (ML) to improve the algorhythm (which doesn't appear to be in play this year).
(EDIT: Nick Whyte, the brains behind Warm Tunas, says last year's aberration was due to "spam that got past my spam detection filtering", as detailed here.)
So what happened? Apparently Tik Tok happened, and its influence was apparently a major factor in the wins of Glass Animals' Heat Waves in 2020 and Doja Cat last year, with both songs massive on that platform.
But the influence of Tik Tok doesn't seem to be something Warm Tunas can measure, partly because it's hard to get good data on it. But let's see if we can we throw that in the mix this year as much as we can, along with the other factors I look at each year - the bookies, the ARIA charts, and Spotify and YouTube plays.
So let's do it, shall we?
All stats/odds correct at the time of publishing.
And remember - gamble responsibly.
Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
Why it will win: Good Luck, Babe! is the only Chappell Roan song in the voting guide. That means all the power and momentum behind the belated success of her massive 2023 album The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess is laser-focused into one mega-hit banger (that's not even on her huge album). For once, the bookies and Warm Tunas are in agreement.
Why it won't win: While it's hard to see anything beating this, stranger things have happened. There are other acts supposedly with a bigger Tik Tok influence, and this might be the moment where we truly see just how significant the whole Tik Tok thing is.
100 Warm Tunas: #1
Sportsbet: $1.68 (favourite)
TAB: $1.75 (favourite)
ARIA: #4
Spotify streams: 1.18 billion
YouTube plays: 72 million
Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor
Why it will win: Ever since The Wiggles won in 2021, all bets are off when it comes to whether Like A Versions can win. This is the LAV to watch (G Flip's Cruel Summer is a close second) if one is going to get up, and the bookies and Warm Tunas agree this is the song with the best shot at giving Good Luck, Babe! a run for its money.
Why it won't win: This Sophie Ellis Bextor cover got some traction outside triple j (which is what got The Wiggles over the line in 2021), but if mainstream crossover appeal is still a thing in the Hottest 100, then we'd need to compare Royel Otis' traction with Good Luck, Babe!'s zeitgeist ubiquity, and it's really no contest.
100 Warm Tunas: #2
Sportsbet: $2.75 (second favourite)
TAB: $4.50 (equal second favourite)
ARIA: #35
Spotify streams: 60.3 million
YouTube plays: 7.5 million
Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
Why it will win: The Kendrick-Drake beef was one of the biggest things of 2024, and Not Like Us was Lamar's coup de grâce. The diss track not only effectively ended the battle in favour of Lamar in the eyes of the public, but it also turned out to be a killer a tune loaded with zingers. Lamar has won the Hottest 100 before (and finished second too), so there's a really good chance he can do it again given the attention on his war of words with Drake - Lamar is arguably bigger than he was when he won with Humble in 2017.
Why it won't win: The bookies have been spot-on in recent years, and they have four songs ahead of Not Like Us. Could a diss track really win, and is there enough people who gave a shit about the Kendrick-Drake beef to get this song to top spot? It might seem like Not Like Us has the best shot at toppling Chappell Roan, but this track's moment in the sun has likely passed. It's certainly been slipping in the odds with bookies over the past couple of weeks. Also, Lamar had a crazy 14 songs in the voting guide, which could split his vote dramatically. Furthermore, winning the Hottest 100 twice is still a rare feat.
100 Warm Tunas: #3
Sportsbet: $10 (fifth favourite)
TAB: $11 (fifth favourite)
ARIA: #5
Spotify streams: 1.02 billion
YouTube plays: 401 million
Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather
Why it will win: If Tik Tok is really such a big deal in the Hottest 100, then Birds Of A Feather could steal Chappell's thunder and give Eilish her second win. This was the eighth biggest song of the year among Aussies on Tik Tok, and only one of two Tik Tok hits that look likely to go high in the Hottest 100. An added bonus is that this is one of only a handful of contenders that has topped the ARIA charts, and that its odds have been getting shorter and shorter by the day.
Why it won't win: Much like Lamar, Eilish had a lot of songs (10!) in the voting guide and is at risk of splitting her vote big time. And between Warm Tunas, Sportsbet and TAB, no one has Eilish winning - just getting really close. Also, much like Lamar, only Flume and Powderfinger have won twice, so that's a tough ask.
100 Warm Tunas: #4
Sportsbet: $6.50 (third favourite)
TAB: $6.50 (third favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 1.9 billion
YouTube plays: 320 million
Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby
Why it will win: This was the biggest song on Tik Tok in Australia this year. So the Warm Tunas may not rate it, and the bookies have it back in the pack, but the Tik Tokers will vote for this in droves. It's also spent 33 weeks in the ARIA charts, including two weeks at #1.
Why it won't win: Will the Tik Tok army be enough to send this to the top of the Hottest 100? And does topping the ARIA charts even matter anymore? Probably not and probably not, but it will be interesting to see how much raw Tik Tok popularity can outdo the Warm Tunas and gamblers.
100 Warm Tunas: #65
Sportsbet: $51 (equal 13th favourite)
TAB: $31 (eighth favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 1.05 billion
YouTube plays: 88 million
Charli XCX & Billie Eilish - Guess
Why it will win: Only Kendrick Lamar had more songs in the voting guide than Charli XCX, and seemingly only Taylor Swift influenced pop culture more than Charli XCX and her brat summer. After being overlooked by the Hottest 100 for so long - just two appearances in 12 years, and none since 2017 - it feels like Charli XCX's moment has arrived. Her fans have a lot to pick from, but this one is the biggest of them all. And throw in Billie Eilish, who also had a massive 2024, and it may just be the collab that gets them both across the line.
Why it won't win: Charli XCX will likely get a lot of songs in the countdown - she may even give G Flip's record of seven a shake - but it's really tough to win when you split your vote so much. The bookies don't rate it, though they have Sabrina Carpenter's Espresso higher and it's not even in the voting guide, so what do they know? And Warm Tunas has it at #5.
100 Warm Tunas: #5
Sportsbet: $41 (10th favourite)
TAB: $41 (10th favourite)
ARIA: #1
Spotify streams: 430 million
YouTube plays: 50 million
Also watch out for:
- Lola Young's Messy - been rapidly rising up the Warm Tunas chart (now at #6), and come from nowhere to be fourth favourite with the bookies, and has been the big hit of summer so far.
- Dom Dolla's girl$ - another hit with the bookies, and top 20 on Warm Tunas, plus Dom Dolla got two songs in the top five last year, so he's got form.
- G Flip's Like A Version of Cruel Summer - top 20 on Warm Tunas, top 10 with the bookies, this has the added Tik Tok edge, as G Flip was the 10th biggest artist on Tik Tok in Australia last year.
- Sabrina Carpenter's Espresso - not in the voting guide, but the bookies rate this very highly, so maybe there's a strong write-in vote, though it seems unlikely.
- Spacey Jane's One Bad Day - they've been in the countdown five years running, plus the bookies and Warm Tunas have this going top 10.
And my predictions are usually way off, but here goes:
1. Chappell Roan - Good Luck, Babe!
2. Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us
3. Royel Otis - Murder On The Dancefloor
4. Billie Eilish - Birds Of A Feather
5. Charli XCX & Billie Eilish - Guess
6. Fred Again, Anderson Paak, CHIKA - Places To Be
7. Tommy Richman - Million Dollar Baby
8. Spacey Jane - One Bad Day
9. Lola Young - Messy
10. Charli XCX & Lorde - Girl So Confusing
