It's Hottest 100 time again. It's on January 22 and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.
It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s when they played more Pearl Jam and Red Hot Chili Peppers and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Get over yourselves, haters. (Oh, and listen to Double J on Sunday, January 23 when they replay the Hottest 100 of 2001 in full.)
When it comes to picking a winner, there are three key indicators - the bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance. The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas was wrong in 2019 and 2016). ARIA chart performance is the icing on the cake - only five times out of 28 has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in the ARIA top 50 prior to winning.
I've added an extra "expert" opinion this year courtesy of GQ, because I've never known them to take an interest in the Hottest 100 before and the more the merrier I say.
Let's look at who might win this year.
(All stats and odds were correct at time of publication.)
Stay - Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber
100 Warm Tunas: #3
Sportsbet: $2.20 (favourite)
ARIA: #1
GQ: #1
Why it will win: This song has been everywhere and nails the all-important crossover factor between mainstream radio and triple j. The last winner to not reach the ARIA top 50 was Ocean Alley's Confidence in 2018 and before that you have to go all the way back to Muse's Knights Of Cydonia in 2008. Stay debuted at #1, spent 14 weeks there, and hasn't left the top six in the six months since its release. It's also the sixth most played track on triple j this year. If Kid Laroi wins, he'll be the first indigenous artist to take top place, with the previous best being Thelma Plum reaching #9 with Better In Blak - that's a big tick for a large portion of the triple j audience. And if you think the Bieber Factor is a drawback, consider this - Bieber has been around for over a decade. How many kids grew up listening to him before crossing over to triple j as they matured, and therefore don't see his name as a negative like older listeners do, but rather a kind of nostalgia? Stay is the favourite, and triple j's Hobba & Hing recently let slip the winner had a clear lead. This is the one.
Why it won't win: The Bieber Factor. triple j crossed a bridge it never expected to cross when it began playing this song, with the youth broadcaster torn between supporting an indigenous rapper they unearthed and playing one of the poppiest of pop stars. In the eyes of many listeners, Bieber is the antithesis of everything triple j once stood for, and in a year of once-unlikely winners, Bieber ranks pretty highly in the unlikely stakes. Just watch the hardcore triple j-heads lose their shit when he wins.
Elephant - The Wiggles
100 Warm Tunas: #1
Sportsbet: $4.50 (third favourite)
ARIA: N/A
GQ: #2
Why it will win: As noted with Bieber, there are a lot people among the current crop of triple j listeners who grew up on The Wiggles. A lot of those same people love Tame Impala. For those listeners, this is a match made in heaven. 100 Warm Tunas has this down as #1, and those algorithms have been right more than they've been wrong.
Why it won't win: A Like A Version has never gone higher than #5, when Denzel Curry's Bulls On Parade blew the lid off. #5 is also the highest any cover has gone - see also Spiderbait's Black Betty and Boy & Bear's Fall At Your Feet. In 2019, 100 Warm Tunas predicted Curry's cover would win, which is where the algorithm falls down. Outside triple j, Like A Version's have no traction. The Wiggles doing Tame Impala is something of an exception to that rule because their cover gained a bit of media notice outside triple j, which will send it higher than #5. But it won't be enough to get the win. But it sparks an interesting question: which win would piss off the purists more - The Wiggles or Justin Bieber?
The Angel Of 8th Ave - Gang Of Youths
100 Warm Tunas: #2
Sportsbet: $7 (fourth favourite)
ARIA: #48
GQ: #3
Why it will win: In a field that includes The Wiggles, Bieber and former Disney pop princess Olivia Rodrigo, this is the purists' favourite. With six entries since 2015, including three in the top 10 in 2017, you could argue their due. And unlike 2017, GOY don't have a whole album worth of tracks to split their vote. If Warm Tunas is wrong about The Wiggles, this is next in line.
Why it won't win: None of the big indicators - Warm Tunas and Sportsbet - tip it to win, and it only barely scraped into the ARIA top 50. And only Kendrick Lamar has ever topped the countdown after previously placing at #2.
Good 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo
100 Warm Tunas: #4
Sportsbet: $4 (second favourite)
ARIA: #1
GQ: #4
Why it will win: Similar to Stay, this has major crossover appeal. It's been in the ARIA top 50 for 34 weeks, and is still in the top 20. Rodrigo is one of the 20 most played artists on triple j and this rocky throwback track sounds like it could have been on triple j's playlist five, 10 or even 20 years ago, which will win over a lot of people.
Why it won't win: Rodrigo is a Disney-approved pop star and High School Music graduate. Much like Bieber and The Wiggles, this factoid gets up the nose of the purists. But more importantly, Rodrigo's track Driver's Licence (another worldwide hit) is also likely to do well, which will split her vote.
Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
100 Warm Tunas: #8
Sportsbet: $21 (fifth favourite)
ARIA: #3
GQ: #5
Why it will win: triple j loves Billie Eilish. She was their most played artist in 2021 and she won the Hottest 100 in 2019. She hasn't missed the top 10 in the past three years - only Powderfinger has ever done that, but it's a record she's likely to break this year as this song is a dead cert for the top 10. But can she get to #1 again?
Why it won't win: Eilish would have to pull a Powderfinger to win - the Queensland rockers are the only band to top the annual countdown twice. It's enough that she'll be setting a new record for most consecutive years in the top 10.
Kiss Me More - Doja Cat feat. SZA
100 Warm Tunas: #5
Sportsbet: $41 (eighth favourite)
ARIA: #2
GQ: #7
Why it will win: Another of triple j's most played songs this year, it's this year's WAP. Cardi B and Megan Thee Stallion set a Hottest 100 record for women of colour and female rappers last year, and Doja Cat and SZA have a chance to set the bar higher again with this boppy number.
Why it won't win: It doesn't have the buzz of the aforementioned songs but is still destined for the top 10. Warm Tunas and the bookies at least agree on that.
And here are some other songs destined to do well:
Lots Of Nothing - Spacey Jane
100 Warm Tunas: #6
Sportsbet: $34 (seventh favourite)
ARIA: N/A
GQ: #6
On My Knees - Rufus Du Sol
100 Warm Tunas: #7
Sportsbet: $26 (sixth favourite)
ARIA: 43
GQ: #10
Hertz - Amyl & The Sniffers
100 Warm Tunas: #9
Sportsbet: $201 (equal 18th favourite)
ARIA: N/A
GQ: #13
Driver's Licence - Olivia Rodrigo
100 Warm Tunas: #21
Sportsbet: $51 (ninth favourite)
ARIA: #1
GQ: #11
Seventeen Going Under - Sam Fender
100 Warm Tunas: #11
Sportsbet: $176 (equal 15th favourite)
ARIA: N/A
GQ: #14
And here's my top 20 so you can check out how wrong I am:
1. Stay - The Kid Laroi & Justin Bieber
2. Good 4 U - Olivia Rodrigo
3. Angel Of 8th Avenue - Gang Of Youths
4. Happier Than Ever - Billie Eilish
5. Elephant - The Wiggles
6. Seventeen Going Under - Sam Fender
7. Lots Of Nothing - Spacey Jane
8. Kiss Me More - Doja Cat feat. SZA
9. On My Knees - Rufus Du Sol
10. Alive - Rufus Du Sol
11. Industry Baby - Lil Nas X feat. Jack Harlow
12. Hertz - Amyl & The Sniffers
13. Chaise Longue - Wet Leg
14. Drivers Licence - Olivia Rodrigo
15. Apple Crumble - Lime Cordiale & Idris Elba
16. Sunscreen - Ball Park Music
17. Gold Chains - Genesis Owusu
18. Queen - G Flip feat. mxmtoon
19. Solar Power - Lorde
20. I Don't Wanna Talk (I Just Wanna Dance) - Glass Animals
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