 |
| Glass Animals are favourites to win this year's Hottest 100. |
It's Hottest 100 time again. It's on January 23 and will once again deliver what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of the past year, creating a musical time capsule for decades to come.
It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s when they played more Pearl Jam and Red Hot Chili Peppers and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Get over yourselves, haters. (Oh, and listen to Double J on Monday, January 25 when they replay the Hottest 100 of 2000 in full.)
We finally got a female winner in last year's countdown, with Billie Eilish taking top spot. She wasn't the favourite, making picking a winner tricky last year. It may be even trickier this year - there were reportedly only a couple of hundred votes separating the top two songs as of last week.
When it comes to picking a winner, there are three key indicators - the bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance. The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas was wrong last year and in 2016). ARIA chart performance is the icing on the cake - only six times out of 27 has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in Australia.
Let's look at who might win this year.
(All stats and odds were correct at time of publication.)
Let's look at who might win this year.
(All stats and odds were correct at time of publication.)
Glass Animals - Heat Waves
100 Warm Tunas: #1
Sportsbet: $1.50 (favourite)
ARIA: #17
Why it will win: This British art-pop four-piece has landed five songs in the Hottest 100 in the past six years, and their track Gooey made it into the Hottest 100 of the 2010s last March. They've never cracked the top 10 before but you could argue they're due. The bookies and Warm Tuna algorithm certainly think so - it's status as favourite has been strengthening over the past few days. This is one of the few songs expected to go high that has actually appeared in the ARIA top 50, which is usually a good indicator. It's going to be heard to beat - that undeniably catchy chorus gives off some serious winning vibes.
Why it won't win: Voting is reportedly close this year, and 100 Warm Tunas was wrong again last year. So were the bookies, in fact. So being favourite may not be the sure thing it was in 2017 and 2018. Glass Animals would also be bucking a bad run for English bands if they win - the last UK act to top the poll was Mumford & Sons, way back in 2009.
Spacey Jane - Booster Seat
100 Warm Tunas: #3
Sportsbet: $2.85 (second favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Why it will win: Spacey Jane are as triple j-approved as a band can be. They won a triple j Unearthed competition to play at Falls in 2018, were nominated for J Awards in 2019 and 2020, and listeners voted their album Sunlight as the best record of 2020. They had a track (Good For You) in last year's countdown, so they haven't totally come out of nowhere, and in an apparently close race, they're close enough to snatch victory with this laidback summery indie-rocker.
Why it won't win: Outside of triple j, Spacey Jane don't have a huge profile, and there's typically a crossover element to winners (hence the ARIA singles charts usually being an important indicator). Their album Sunlight did reach #2 though - maybe that will be enough. But it feels like this Perth band might be too fresh to win - while the likes of Billie Eilish, Chet Faker and Vance Joy reached #1 with songs off debut releases, they had significant ARIA chart and mainstream radio prominence that Spacey Jane is yet to achieve.
Ball Park Music - Cherub
100 Warm Tunas: #2
Sportsbet: $7.50 (third favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Why it will win: Cos it's one of the best songs of the year, or of any year in fact. This euphoric slow-burner is a thing of beauty, drifting across angelic melodies until it eventually explodes about four minutes in. With nine songs over the past nine countdowns, Ball Park Music are much-loved by triple j listeners, who voted their self-titled album into #4 on the 2020 best album poll. The highest they've reached in the Hottest 100 is #18, so they've been knocking on the door. Last year's winner was also predicted to finish at #2 by 100 Warm Tunas, so this could be Ball Park Music's year.
Why it won't win: As beautiful as this song is, it doesn't sound like any other winner in the past. The production and arrangement is bold, and its (mostly) wistful and chill vibe doesn't scream #1. Ball Park Music's music hasn't historically crossed over into the mainstream either. But it would be a pleasant and welcome surprise if it won.
Flume feat. Toro Y Moi - The Difference
100 Warm Tunas: #4
Sportsbet: $11 (fifth favourite)
ARIA: #45
Why it will win: One of the few EDM tracks predicted to go high, The Difference is the latest Flume song with a serious shot at the top spot. The Sydney producer has had a remarkable 13 songs finish in the past eight polls. Even more incredible is the fact that five of those have landed in the top 10, including the winner in 2016. If there's anyone bringing some good form into this countdown, it's Flume.
Why it won't win: Flume would be only the second act to win the Hottest 100 twice if he wins again (Powderfinger has won twice, and their frontman Bernard Fanning has also won as a solo artist). It seems like a tough ask to top the poll again with the way triple j moves through artists - Flume has only been among the top 50 most played artists on triple j once in the years since winning the countdown. He still manages to poll well each year, but this isn't quite the banger that Never Be Like You was.
Tame Impala - Lost In Yesterday
100 Warm Tunas: #7
Sportsbet: $17 (equal seventh favourite)
ARIA: #65
Why it will win: While critics didn't rate Tame Impala's The Slow Rush as highly as previous albums, triple j listeners lapped it up, voting it to #3 on their 2020 album poll. They were also triple j's most played artist last year. With 13 entries since 2008, Kevin Parker's band has been one of the big players in the countdown over the past decade. They've never won an annual Hottest 100, but finished on top of the Hottest 100 of the 2010s earlier this year. Like Flume, Tame Impala are countdown veterans that could still take the cake.
Why it won't win: While boasting a classic Tame Impala sound, this has been slipping with the bookies, and isn't a top five prospect with 100 Warm Tunas. It's worth noting that the Tunas algorithm had The Less I Know The Better landing at #5 in the Hottest 100 of the 2010s, but could the algorithm be this wrong?
Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion - WAP
100 Warm Tunas: #16
Sportsbet: $10 (fourth favourite)
ARIA: #1
Why it will win: The late money has been flowing like a wet-ass pussy (sorry) for WAP, and its been rising up 100 Warm Tunas chart as well. Pitchfork, Rolling Stone, and NPR named this the best song of 2020 - would it really be surprising if triple j listeners crowned it as well? After all, this the station that built its reputation on playing the likes of Fuck The Police and You Just Like Me Cos I'm Good In Bed when no other radio station would, and triple j was the only major station playing WAP uncensored. Topping the ARIA charts never hurts - Bad Guy, Never Be Like You, Thrift Shop and Somebody That I Used To Know all topped the charts prior to winning the Hottest 100.
Why it won't win: It's possible that there's enough of a backlash against WAP to stop it getting across the line. The backlash comes from a range of places too - people put off by its femme-focused sex-forward lyrics, people who don't think Cardi B is triple j material, and people who just don't dig it. But if Cardi and Megan win, it would be a whole lot of firsts - the first women of colour to win, the first female double act to win, the first female hip hop artists to win. Are the triple j listeners ready?
Mashd N Kutcher feat. Dan Andrews - Get On The Beers
100 Warm Tunas: #15
Sportsbet: $15 (sixth favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Why it will win: It's been that kind of year. Man, we've needed a laugh. So is there another song likely to be in the countdown that represents 2020 better than this club banger that slices up one of the Victorian Premier's pandemic pressers and turns it into a drinking anthem? This is peak 2020.
Why it won't win: It's only funny the first couple of times. And a novelty song hasn't won since Denis Leary's Asshole in 1993 (unless you count Thrift Shop or Pretty Fly (For A White Guy) as novelty songs). In fact, novelty songs have been conspicuously absent from past countdowns - last year's Pub Feed by The Chats stood out like the proverbial. Sure, Get On The Beers has been turned into a Xmas lights spectacular, but is it worth voting in as the best song of the year? Yeah nah.
Also expected to poll well:
Jack Harlow - What's Poppin
100 Warm Tunas: #62
Sportsbet: $17 (eighth favourite)
ARIA: #8
G Flip - Hyperfine
100 Warm Tunas: #5
Sportsbet: $19 (ninth favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Mallrat - Rockstar
100 Warm Tunas: #9
Sportsbet: $21 (10th favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Hilltop Hoods - I'm Good?
100 Warm Tunas: #6
Sportsbet: $29 (11th favourite)
ARIA: #41
The Jungle Giants - Sending Me Ur Love
100 Warm Tunas: #8
Sportsbet: $31 (equal 12th favourite)
ARIA: N/A
Bring Me The Horizon - Parasite Eve
100 Warm Tunas: #11
Sportsbet: $81
ARIA: #82
Eves Karydas - Complicated
100 Warm Tunas: #10
Sportsbet: $41
ARIA: N/A
The Smith Street Band - I Still Dream About You
100 Warm Tunas: #15
Sportsbet: $34
ARIA: N/A (EP reached #9)
Birdz feat. Fred Leone - Bagi-la-m Bargan
100 Warm Tunas: #14
Sportsbet: $41
ARIA: N/A
The Avalanches feat. Rivers Cuomo & Pink Siifu - Running Red Lights
100 Warm Tunas: #12
Sportsbet: $46
ARIA: N/A
And for what it's worth, here are my predictions:
1. Glass Animals - Heat Waves
2. Ball Park Music - Cherub
3. Hilltop Hoods - I'm Good?
4. Cardi B feat. Megan Thee Stallion - WAP
5. Tame Impala - Lost In Yesterday
6. Spacey Jane - Booster Seat
7. Flume feat. Toro Y Moi - The Difference
8. Eves Karydas - Complicated
9. Mashd N Kutcher - Get On The Beers
10. Billie Eilish - Therefore I Am
11. Lime Cordiale - Reality Check Please
12. G Flip - Hyperfine
13. DMA's - Criminals
14. Jack Harlow - What's Poppin
15. Glass Animals - Tangerine
16. Bring Me The Horizon - Parasite Eve
17. The Jungle Giants - Sending Me Ur Loving
18. The Avalanches feat. Rivers Cuomo & Pink Siifu - Running Red Lights
19. Tame Impala - Is It True
20. The Smith Street Band - I Still Dream About You
No comments:
Post a Comment