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| Tones & I |
It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s when they played more Pearl Jam and Chili Peppers and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Get over yourselves, haters. (Oh, and listen to Double J on Monday, January 27 when they replay the Hottest 100 of 1999 in full.)
This year's race looks likely to chart new territory, either for female solo artists, people of colour, indigenous artists or triple j's own in-house cover factory Like A Version. But when it comes to picking a winner, there are three key indicators - the bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance.
The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas said Amy Shark was gonna win in 2016). ARIA chart performance is the icing on the cake - only six times out of 26 has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in Australia - last year's winner, Ocean Alley's Confidence, was the first non-charter to win since 2007.
Let's look at who might win this year.
(All stats and odds were correct at time of publication.)
Tones & I - Dance Monkey
Odds: $1.90 (favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #8
ARIA Charts: #1
Why it will win: This is the biggest Aussie song of the year; not just here, but overseas. It has dominated charts and crossed into the mainstream in a big way, but triple j would really love for this to win for two reasons. Firstly, triple j unearthed Tones & I, and secondly, it would finally mean a solo female artist has won the countdown. The bookies think this is the likely winner, and I tend to agree. It feels like a Hottest 100 winner in the same way Gotye's mega-hit Somebody That I Used To Know did back in 2011. Winning four ARIA Awards wouldn't hurt either.
Why it won't win: 100 Warm Tunas has only been wrong once. That was in its first year in 2016, and the brains behind it improved their algorithms after that and haven't been wrong since. And they have Dance Monkey at #8. Maybe the song has been overplayed, and maybe there are enough haters out there to keep it from the top spot. Interestingly, this song is the only real point of difference between the odds and Warm Tunas in terms of the top 10.
Denzel Curry - Bulls On Parade (triple j Like A Version)
100 Warm Tunas: #1
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: 100 Warm Tunas has this as a clear winner, and triple j said the #1 song had pulled ahead in the final stages of voting, so maybe this is the one. It's the most watched Like A Version from 2019 by a wide margin, and it is a pretty stunning cover (it's faithful and somehow angrier than the original) of a song that only made it to #46 back in 1996. If Curry wins, he'll be just the second person of colour to top the chart (after Kendrick Lamar in 2017) and it will be the first cover to win. The previous best showing for a cover is #5, which has happened three times previously - Bjork's It's Oh So Quiet (1995), Spiderbait's Black Betty (2004), and Boy & Bear's Fall At Your Feet (2010).
Why it won't win: It would feel weird if a triple j-manufactured cover took out #1, even if it was a super-awesome rendition of a classic Rage Against The Machine anthem. The bookies don't seem to think it will get up, perhaps because the best a Like A Version has done previously is #6 (DMAs' Believe in 2016).
Billie Eilish - bad guy
Odds: $3.50 (third favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #2ARIA Charts: #1
Why it will win: If 18-year-old Billie Eilish Pirate Baird O'Connell wins, she'll not only be the first female solo artist to win, but she'll also be the youngest vocalist to win the Hottest 100 ever (by a distance of almost three years). She would also be the first artist born in the 2000s to win the countdown. She's the dark horse to steal the crown (you should see her in one!) - she won triple j's album of the year poll, and has four previous entries in Hottest 100s, including three last year. Bad guy has been in the ARIA charts for almost a year. All the stars seem to be aligning for Billie Eilish, but she has two big tunes between her and top spot.
Why it won't win: The bookies have a lot of daylight between bad guy and everything else, but she's only the third favourite. Similar to Dance Monkey, its had a lot of time in the charts and on triple j - maybe too much. Fatigue might keep bad guy from the win.
G Flip - Drink Too Much
Odds: $15 (4th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #4
ARIA Charts: #77
Why it will win: G Flip is one of many women expected by the bookies and Warm Tunas to dominate the top 10. Like Billie Eilish, she's a rising star, with two songs in last year's countdown, and a second place behind Eilish in triple j's album of the year poll for 2019. She's much-loved by the triple j community, won breakthrough independent artist of the year at the AIR Awards, and got two ARIA nominations. She's a longshot, but stranger things have happened.
Why it won't win: It would be great if this drumming-singing-songwriting-producing wiz could steal the show, but it seems unlikely.
Mallrat - Charlie
Odds: $21 (5th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #3
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: It's basically a coin toss on Warm Tunas as to whether Mallrat or G Flip will place third, so if you think G Flip could go all the way, then Mallrat's a chance too. She reached #7 last year with Groceries, and the pundits seem to think she'll go higher this year. But can she go high enough?
Why it won't win: Unlike G Flip, Mallrat's album didn't get into the top 10 of triple j's album of the year poll, and she didn't get the extra awareness that comes with ARIA Awards. Her #7 last year bodes well, but the bookies have her at long odds.
Thelma Plum - Better In Blak
Odds: $26 (equal 6th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #5
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Plum's empowerment anthem would be a very worthy winner. She first cracked the Hottest 100 way back in 2014, having won triple j's National Indigenous Music Awards competition two years earlier. Her album Better In Blak made it to #4 on the ARIA charts and #3 in triple j's album poll. If she wins, aside from being the first solo female artist to do so, she would also make history as the first indigenous artist to take the top prize. Triple j unearthed her, and there would be no better success story for the station than for a First Nations woman to win the countdown.
Why it won't win: Plum is in a large group of women expected to dominate the top 10, but she's also in a group that's expected to finish anywhere between #3 and #10.
Also likely to do well:
FIDLAR - By Myself
Odds: $26 (equal 6th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #6ARIA Charts: N/A
Flume feat. Vera Blue - Rushing Back
100 Warm Tunas: #7
ARIA Charts: #15
The Jungle Giants - Heavy Hearted
100 Warm Tunas: #9
ARIA Charts: N/A
Sofi Tukker - Purple Hat
Odds: $31 (equal 10th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #10
ARIA Charts: #44
The Chats - Pub Feed
Odds: $31 (equal 10th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #11
ARIA Charts: N/A
Travis Scott - HIGHEST IN THE ROOM
Odds: $26 (equal 6th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: N/A
ARIA Charts: #3
Hilltop Hoods - Exit Sign {Ft. Illy/Ecca Vandal}
Odds: $41 (equal 14th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #12
ARIA Charts: #16
Lizzo - Juice
Odds: $41 (equal 14th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #15
ARIA Charts: N/A
My predictions (totally just guessing here)...
1. Tones & I - Dance Monkey
2. Billie Eilish - bad guy
3. Denzel Curry - Bulls On Parade (Like A Version)
4. Thelma Plum - Better In Blak
5. G Flip - Drink Too Much
6. DMA'S - Silver
7. Mallrat - Charlie
8. Flume feat. Vera Blue - Rushing Back
9. Hilltop Hoods feat. Illy & Ecca Vandal - Exit Sign
10. Sofi Tukker - Purple Hat
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