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| Ocean Alley |
It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't even listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s when they played more Pearl Jam and Chili Peppers and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Get over yourselves, haters.
This year's race doesn't look as one-horse as last year, although there's still a strong favourite in Ocean Alley's Confidence. But when it comes to picking a winner, there are three key indicators - the bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance. The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas said Amy Shark was gonna win in 2016).
The chart thing is like the icing on the cake, but only five times out of 25 has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in Australia. In fact, the past seven Hottest 100 winners reached the ARIA top 10. So ignore these tea leaves at your own risk.
Let's look at who might win this year.
(All stats and odds were correct at time of publication.)
Ocean Alley - Confidence
Odds: $1.70 (favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #1ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: This yacht-rock earworm is favourite with the bookies, and 100 Warm Tunas, which is a good position to be in. It's not as strong a favourite as Humble last year, but Warm Tunas has it receiving about three per cent more votes than #2 (from a sample size over 4000) which is a sizeable lead in the scheme of things. Ocean Alley also have Hottest 100 form, cracking the countdown for the first time last year with The Comedown at #49. Their album Chiaroscuro also came in at #2 in triple j's Album Of The Year poll, which bodes really well. And as I mentioned in last year's summation (see #7), yacht rock is king.
Why it won't win: If it won, Confidence would be the first song since Knights Of Cydonia in 2007 to do so without cracking the ARIA singles charts, which means a distinct lack of crossover appeal for the casual triple j listeners. Chiaroscuro also stalled at #15 on the ARIA charts and dropped out of the top 50 after just three weeks. Maybe the charts don't mean so much these days, but it would still be bucking a trend. And can a yacht rock tune really take #1?
Childish Gambino - This Is America
Odds: $3.75 (second favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #2
ARIA Charts: #1
Why it will win: Few songs had the cultural impact of This Is America and its incredible video in 2018. It went to #1 on the ARIA charts, has had close to half a billion views on YouTube, and Gambino AKA Donald Glover has a sizeable Aussie fan base. And with Redbone going #5 two years ago, there's a lot of love in particular from the triple j set. If anyone's going to upset the favourite, it's Gambino's This Is America.
Why it won't win: Eight months is a long time in pop culture, and the tsunami-sized impact of This Is America sadly feels more like a ripple now. The bookies and Warm Tunas have Gambino at #2, which is the probably the best indication he won't win. Plus maybe there's some resentment out there because he cancelled his 2018 Australian tour.
Ruby Fields - Dinosaurs
100 Warm Tunas: #3
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: A solo female winner is well overdue, and Ruby Fields is the best placed of the women to do it. This tune's confessional lyrics and that full band 20-second thrash with only a minute to go make it a pretty memorable song. Fields is also one of triple j's own - she was discovered through triple j's Unearthed page, and she's been given plenty of love from the station. In what could be the closest year for a while, being third favourite might be enough.
Why it won't win: Fields wasn't in triple j's 50 most played artists of 2018, and she was eighth most played on Unearthed Radio, which might mean she hasn't fully graduated to triple j. She's never bothered the ARIA charts, and she still only has an EP and a handful of singles to her name, so it seems like her star is still on the rise and maybe her best is yet to come. All the same, expect a very high Hottest 100 debut from this Sydney singer-songwriter.
Fisher - I'm Losing It
100 Warm Tunas: #6
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: The bookies rated this highly when betting opened (it was third favourite), probably on the back of the Aussie DJ's Grammy and ARIA nominations for this rave party banger. It didn't trouble the main ARIA chart, but it did go #1 on the ARIA club chart, which may count for something. Plus Fisher has been doing the dance festival rounds pretty heavily this year, and this seems to be the electro track of the year.
Why it won't win: Dance music is still pretty polarising. Unlike hip hop which has crossed over to just about all corners of triple j's listener base, dance is still seen as a bit of an outlier to many. Sure Flume won a couple of years ago, but that was more pop than this. There's typically a raver in the top 10, and this is it for this year, but it's not going to #1.
DZ Deathrays - Like People
100 Warm Tunas: #13
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: The Dee-Zees have been on the rise for a while now, and this is their best track to date. Oddly it's the fourth and probably final single from their album of this year Bloody Lovely, which has already boasted a Hottest 100 entry (Shred For Summer, #66 last year). This would be their third appearance since debuting in the 2014 Hottest 100, so maybe it's time. If nothing else, it's probably time for a rock song to win again - that hasn't happened since Kings Of Leon's Sex On Fire (if you don't consider The Rubens' Hoops rock, and no one does). And what about the video with Murray Wiggle in it - surely that's worth a win in itself?
Why it won't win: As noted above, rock hasn't won in a decade. If a rock track is going to do it this year, it's this one, but it has no real crossover power. The bookies initially had it sixth favourite but it's slipped as Hottest 100 Day has drawn closer. The Warm Tunas' social media collator puts it in a thick clump of more than a dozen songs separated by only a per cent or two in terms of total votes. That means it's just as likely to miss the top 10 as place fifth on those numbers.
Amy Shark - I Said Hi
Odds: $8 (fourth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #4
ARIA Charts: #6
Why it will win: Was there a bigger female pop star in Australia last year? I don't think so. She was the 10th-most-played artist on triple j in 2018, and her debut album landed at #1 and is still in the ARIA top 20 after nearly six months. Then there were four ARIAs. She's also got recent Hottest 100 form, coming in at #2 two years ago. This pop anthem would be a worthy winner.
Why it won't win: Her massive album didn't make the top 10 in triple j's year-ender album poll, which is not a deal-breaker but a worry. This song also got flogged on commercial radio, which can be a double-edged sword. It didn't hurt Gotye in 2011, but it's a fine line between crossing over and getting a bit of tall-poppy backlash. Also she would be only the second artist (after Kendrick Lamar last year) to win after previously finishing #2.
Bring Me The Horizon - Mantra
Odds: $18 (equal eighth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #8ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Hip hop has finally had a win, so maybe it's time for metal? If it's going to happen in 2018, it's going to be Bring Me The Horizon that does it. While they're sounding further and further from metal these days, Mantra is the heavy song that's palatable enough for the non-metal fans, which might be the thing that gets them across the line. The band has six previous entries in the Hottest 100, including three in 2015. Maybe this is BMTH's year.
Why it won't win: In the '90s, there was one heavy tune in the top 10 most years, with the genre peaking in 1997 with Tool's Stinkfist reaching #2. But metal hasn't made the top 10 since System Of A Down's Chop Suey reached #3 in 2001 - as "alternative rock" has waned, metal has also slunk back to fringes. BMTH will likely return metal to the upper end of the countdown (top 10 no doubt), but the weird thing is that Mantra probably isn't heavy enough - its poppier inclinations have likely alienated too many old fans to get the votes needed.
Wafia - I'm Good
Odds: $16 (seventh favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #5
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: 100 Warm Tunas rates this really highly and it's odds have steadily climbed in recent weeks. It's the pump-up positive anthem of the broken-hearted for 2018 (like the opposite of Dean Lewis' Be Alright), and there's something zeitgeisty about it. There's a strong female contingent vying for top 10 spots this year, so maybe it's a roll of the dice as to who's got the goods. And I'm Good only came out in August, which makes it a lot fresher than a few other songs on this list.
Why it won't win: The bookies didn't rate it (but it has firmed up) and Warm Tunas has it at the top of a very thick peloton vying for fifth. Wafia wasn't in the 50 most played acts on triple j in 2018, I'm Good didn't chart, and she's still only a couple of EPs into her career. This is the dark horse, but Wafia probably has bigger tracks in her future.
Also likely to do well:
Skegss - Up In The Clouds
Odds: $71
100 Warm Tunas: #14
ARIA Charts: N/A
Mallrat - Groceries
Odds: $18 (equal eighth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #7
ARIA Charts: N/A
The Wombats - Turn
Odds: $26
100 Warm Tunas: #10
ARIA Charts: NA
Dean Lewis - Be Alright
Odds: $21 (10th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #9
ARIA Charts: #1
Travis Scott - Sicko Mode
Odds: $14 (sixth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #11
ARIA Charts: #7
Broods - Peach
Odds: $28
100 Warm Tunas: #12
ARIA Charts: N/A
Waax - Labrador
Odds: $251
100 Warm Tunas: #25
ARIA Charts: N/A
Thundamentals - I Miss You
Odds: $41
100 Warm Tunas: #15
ARIA Charts: N/A
Rufus Du Sol - Underwater
Odds: $67
100 Warm Tunas: #17
ARIA Charts: N/A
G Flip - About You
Odds: $76
100 Warm Tunas: #20
ARIA Charts: N/A
Ocean Alley - Knees
Odds: $48
100 Warm Tunas: #16
ARIA Charts: N/A
And my prediction for the top 10
- Childish Gambino - This Is America (this may be more wishful thinking)
- Ocean Alley - Confidence
- Amy Shark - I Said Hi
- Ruby Fields - Dinosaurs
- Wafia - I'm Good
- Bring Me The Horizon - Mantra
- DZ Deathrays - Like People
- Dean Lewis - Be Alright
- Fisher - Losing It
- Broods - Peach
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