The Hottest 100 is back. It's on a new date (January 27) this year, but it promises to deliver yet another fine slice of what triple j listeners deem to be the best songs of 2017.
It will also bring with it much debate. There will be the typical whingeing from people who don't even listen to triple j anymore and who preferred it in the '90s when they played more Pearl Jam and Chili Peppers and who haven't caught up to the fact that triple j is the national youth broadcaster and thus keeps up with the youth and not ageing morons whose musical tastes haven't moved with the times. Sheesh.
Anyway, the results of the world's biggest musical democracy are just days away, and triple j posted recently that "there’s only a couple hundred votes separating some of the songs in the Top 5". Note the inclusion of the words "some of". That could be giving credence to popular theory that this year's countdown is a one-horse race - that Kendrick Lamar's Humble is way out in front, and it's left to the minor placings to be separated by only a couple hundred votes. Otherwise they would have said "there's only a couple hundred votes separating the top songs". Right?
But how do we know Kendrick Lamar is going to win without being subjective and qualitative and using terms like "banger"?
Well, it's easier than ever to spot a winner these days. There are three key indicators - the bookies, social media vote counter 100 Warm Tunas, and ARIA chart performance. The first two are somewhat obvious and are usually pretty close (although 100 Warm Tunas said Amy Shark was gonna win last year).
The chart thing is like the icing on the cake, but it's more relevant than some people realise. If a song hasn't charted, it's less likely to win the Hottest 100. To wit:
- The last time a Hottest 100 winner failed to impact the ARIA charts was 2007 (Muse's Knights Of Cydonia).
- Only five times (out of 24) has the Hottest 100 winner failed to chart in Australia (Knights Of Cydonia, Wish You Well, No One Knows, These Days, No Aphrodisiac).
- The past six Hottest 100 winners reached the ARIA top 10.
- Seven Hottest 100 winners have been ARIA #1s (Never Be Like You, Thrift Shop, Somebody That I Used To Know, Sex On Fire, Pretty Fly For A White Guy, Wonderwall, Zombie).
Kendrick Lamar - Humble
Odds: $1.50 (favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #1
ARIA Charts: #2
Why it will win: The bookies say he's gonna win. 100 Warm Tunas say he's gonna win (by a long way). Lamar was also the eighth most played artist on triple j in 2017. Listeners voted his album Damn to #3 on triple j's best albums of 2017. If ever there was a year for Lamar, it's this year, and if ever there was a track, it's this one. Humble is Lamar's highest charting solo track in Australia (#2) and spent 40 weeks in the charts. That means that even if people weren't listening to triple j, they still had a good shot of hearing this song.
Why it won't win: Kendrick Lamar has a bit of history to make to win. A hip hop song has only ever won once (Macklemore & Ryan Lewis in 2012 with Thrift Shop and some people don't even count that one as a victory for hip hop because they say it's a novelty song). Also no act has ever won after placing #2 in a previous year, which Lamar did with King Kunta in 2015. Lamar would also be breaking a streak of Aussie winners that goes back to 2012. But here's the big one - no African-American act has ever won the Hottest 100. History is just waiting to be made.
Gang Of Youths - The Deepest Sighs, The Frankest Shadows
Odds: $7 (outright second favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #3
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Gang Of Youths were the biggest Aussie band of the year, and the last four winners have been Aussies. Their album was voted #1 in triple j's best album poll for 2017. And they won best album, best group, and best rock album at the ARIAs. If GOY were gonna have a year, this should probably be their year. If Humble wasn't in the running, a GOY track would be a good shot for #1.
Why it won't win: But which one? Aside from Humble having this sewn up, Gang Of Youths supporters have been spreading their votes far and wide. 100 Warm Tunas predicts four GOY tracks in the countdown, all in the top 40. None of those singles charted (although the album debuted at #1 and has been in the charts for the past 21 weeks) so it almost feels random as to which of the many great tracks from Go Farther In Lightness makes the Hottest 100. In fact in recent days 100 Warm Tunas swapped this one and Let Me Down Easy for the second and third position. It may be case of having too many horses in the one race and them all getting in each other's way.
Gang Of Youths - Let Me Down Easy
Odds: $12 (outright fifth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #2
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: As above.
Why it won't win: As above. On a sidenote, 100 Warm Tunas is predicting a 2-3 finish for Gang Of Youths. Should this happen, it will be the highest consecutive tracks by an artist, beating the 3-4 finish of The Offspring in 1994. And if they can get three in the top 10 (What Can I Do If The Fire Goes Out? is a likely third candidate) they will be just the third act to do so (after Chet Faker in 2014 and Powderfinger in 2003). For the record, the bookies are predicting a 2-5 finish.
Methyl Ethel - Ubu
Odds: $15 (equal sixth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #4ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: This wonderfully weird and catchy pop-rock tune is a dark horse that's bound to go top 10 - bookies have it at #7, Warm Tunas it at #4. But it's such a long shot the biggest question will be "can it reach #2?". Unless it's the year of the upset, this won't win. Or get #2, sadly. Great tune though,
Why it won't win: As above.
Lorde - Green Light
Odds: $10 (equal third favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #8
ARIA Charts: #4
Why it will win: Robbed in 2013 when Riptide beat Royals, this could be the year for revenge for Lorde. She was the most played artists on triple j last year, and listeners voted her album #2 in the annual end-of-year album poll. She's been in the countdown five times, always in the top 50. Bookies and Warm Tunas rate it highly. It's got crossover appeal. She's due. It's going to be tough to topple Humble, but if any song can do it, it's Green Light. If she wins, she'll be the first solo female to top the countdown.
Khalid - Young Dumb & Broke
Odds: $10 (equal third favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #20
ARIA Charts: #4
Why it will win: Every kid graduating high school this year is voting for this. It's got crossover appeal - this song's been all over the mainstream, while Khalid was also in triple j's top 50 most played artists in 2017. There's also a certain "Hottest 100" quality to the song - the countdown's upper echelons have been peppered with quirky pop singalongs like this since Asshole won the first yearly poll in 1993.
Why it won't win: This is one of those weird ones where the bookies rate it way higher (#4) than 100 Warm Tunas (#20). The right answer is probably somewhere in the middle (certainly not higher).
Brockhampton - Sweet
Odds: $22 (equal ninth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #7
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: If this is the year hip hop tops the poll, then this is a likely candidate should the whole Humble thing be a furphy. It was played heavily on triple j in the lead up to voting opening, so could be fresh in people's minds. It's also one of the most interesting hip hop songs in recent years, and Brockhampton are one of the most interesting hip hop groups for a while... if that's worth anything.
Why it won't win: As great and fun as it is, it's probably only going to be the second best hip hop song of the year in the eyes (ears?) of triple j listeners.
Angus & Julia Stone - Chateau
Odds: $15 (equal sixth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #6
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: They've got form, obviously, although if they won, they'd be just the second act to top the poll twice. Mind you, this song is one hundred times more interesting than Big Jet Plane, so who knows, maybe they can do it again. Everyone who went on a Jucy Van roadtrip up the East Coast of Australia to find themselves in 2017 probably voted for this.
Why it won't win: The days of winning twice are long gone. And this song hasn't been as ubiquitous as their previous winner. On a side note, I predict this is the last time we talk about Angus & Julia Stone in the context of maybe winning the Hottest 100 for a second time.
Post Malone feat. 21 Savage - Rockstar
Odds: $19 (outright eighth favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #81
ARIA Charts: #1
Why it will win: This guy is massive at the moment and triple j have played him. He's got four singles in the ARIA top 50 at the moment, including this previous #1.
Why it won't win: This is one of those weird ones where Sportsbet says the song is top 10, but a week ahead of voting closing it wasn't even in 100 Warm Tunas (it's now #81). Last year, the bookies did the same thing with Temper Trap, but 100 Warm Tunas were in the right. So this won't win. It won't even be in the top 50, unless something is properly broken with 100 Warm Tunas' methodology (which is unlikely) or something strange happens. Despite topping the ARIA charts, this hasn't been a big enough blip on triple j's radar, so don't expect too much.
Pnau - Go Bang
Odds: $31 (equal 14th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #5ARIA Charts: #13
Why it will win: Pnau have been dropping Hottest 100-friendly bangers for a decade now and have never cracked the top 10 (they reached #11 last year with Chameleon). This might be their best chance yet. The song has only been out for less than two months, so it might be fresh enough to stir up some votes. But....
Why it won't win: ... there has never been a winner released in December, and only ever one released in November (Pretty Fly). So history says, Go Bang is too fresh.
Thundamentals feat. Mataya - Sally
Odds: $27 (equal 13th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #9ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Thundamentals were the second-most played act on triple j last year, so that's gotta count for something. And this song is fun.
Why it won't win: The bookies didn't rate it much (it was at $501 last week), but its shortened dramatically. Not enough though.
The Smith Street Band - Birthdays
The Smith Street Band - Birthdays
100 Warm Tunas: #12
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Tenth most played on triple j in 2017. Album #4 in the listener's poll. They almost cracked the top 20 last year. Lot of love out there for these guys.
Why it won't win: I'm pretty sure too many people hate the sound of this guy's voice for them ever to win. Same reason Jebediah never won.
Baker Boy feat. Yirrmal - Marryuna
Baker Boy feat. Yirrmal - Marryuna
100 Warm Tunas: #10
ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: It would be a dream come true for triple j if this won. Imagine that - the year they move the countdown away from Australia Day as a show of respect to the First Australians, an indigenous artist Unearthed by triple j wins the Hottest 100. It won't happen, but it would be incredible if it did.
Why it won't win: Happy to be corrected on this, but the best placing by an indigenous act is #16 (I think), when AB Original & Dan Sultan set off a "youthquake" last year with the track January 26. Baker Boy would have to make some pretty serious history to win.
Vera Blue - Regular Touch
Vera Blue - Regular Touch
Odds: $201
100 Warm Tunas: #11ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Probably the perfect time for this ode to all the single ladies. Vera Blue's album was #8 on the listener's poll and she was the 15th most played artist on triple j last year. She also helped Illy into the top 10 last countdown by featuring on Papercuts. It would be nice to see her do it on her own this year.
Why it won't win: Great song, great timing, but too many other big songs going on. Would be good to see it sneak into the top 10, but that's as much as you should expect from Regular Touch.
Gang Of Youths - What Can I Do If The Fires Goes Out?
Gang Of Youths - What Can I Do If The Fires Goes Out?
Odds: $401
100 Warm Tunas: #15ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: As above. But I wanted to include this one because in my head this is the Gang Of Youths song that should be #2 or #3. Is it possible I'm right and 100 Warm Tunas is wrong? No. It is not possible.
Why it won't win: As above.
The Killers - The Man
Odds: $41 (outright 20th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #17ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: Kinda strange seeing these guys pop up here again, like it's one for the oldies. These dudes are all time. Their first appearance was way back in 2004 when they reached #4 with Somebody Told Me (they had three songs in the top 40 that year). Could this be a win for the old-timers?
Why it won't win: Probably not. It's a great tune but it feels like the last time we'll see them in the countdown - they haven't been in the Hottest 100 for nine years. triple j usually stop playing bands about this point in their career. Check out Foo Fighters - this is likely to be (according to 100 Warm Tunas) the first time they've released an album without a single song making the countdown.
Vance Joy - Lay It On Me
Vance Joy - Lay It On Me
Odds: $26 (equal 11th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #14ARIA Charts: #18
Why it will win: You could argue this song is better than Riptide.
Why it won't win: But it hasn't been as ubiquitous or zeitgeisty as his previous winner. And as said before, the days of winning twice seem to be over.
Alex Lahey - Every Day's The Weekend
Odds: $34 (equal 17th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #21ARIA Charts: N/A
Why it will win: It would be great to see this win, or I Haven't Been Taking Care Of Myself (#19 on 100 Warm Tunas). Alex Lahey is awesome and triple j love her (33rd most played artist of 2017) and triple j listeners love her (sixth best album of the year).
Why it won't win: As much as this is a belter, it just won't get there.
Also watch out for these random tunes (I dig):
Peking Duk & AlunaGeorge - Fake Magic
Odds: $46 (equal 21st favourite)100 Warm Tunas: #13
ARIA Charts: #34
Ball Park Music - Exactly How You Are
Odds: $501100 Warm Tunas: #16
ARIA Charts: N/A
Nothing But Thieves - Amsterdam
Odds: N/A100 Warm Tunas: #25
ARIA Charts: N/A
Portugal. The Man - Feel It Still
Odds: $34 (equal 17th favourite)
100 Warm Tunas: #37ARIA Charts: #5
For the record, here is my predicted top 10 list:
- Kendrick Lamar - Humble
- Gang Of Youths - The Deepest Sighs, The Frankest Shadows
- Lorde - Green Light
- Gang Of Youths - Let Me Down Easy
- Methyl Ethel - Ubu
- Pnau - Go Bang
- Brockhampton - Sweet
- Thundamentals feat. Mataya - Sally
- Vera Blue - Regular Touch
- Khalid - Young Dumb & Broke
And here's a playlist that is effectively my Hottest 100 voting shortlist (and then some):
No comments:
Post a Comment